On a night which saw Republicans gain control of the lower house with a number of spectacular victories, his were not tears of disappointment, even if the Grand Old Party did fall short of also seizing the upper house, the Senate.
Boehner will become the third most powerful politician in the United States, after President Obama and Vice President Biden, after the Republicans routed House Democrats, gaining 60 seats to split control of Capitol Hill between the two main American parties and deal a severe blow to Obama’s hope of implementing his agenda.
Boehner insisted, however, that this is no time for Republican celebration. This may be seen as a surprise considering the dramatic turnaround in GOP fortunes after their poor showings in 2006 and 2008. However, there may be a tinge of Republican regret stemming from the fact that although the party managed to trim the Democratic Senate majority to four seats, from eighteen in 2008, the results perhaps should have been even more positive for the party.
It is the Tea Party which has caused these Republican headaches. The Tea Party, a phenomenon that has dominated this electoral cycle, is a pressure movement which is opposed to central government interference in the lives of ordinary Americans. The nascent political movement, which competed in GOP primary contests and whose darling is Sarah Palin, may well have cost the Republicans a majority in the Senate.
The Republican mainstream candidate in Delaware, Mike Castle, lost his party’s nomination to an eccentric extremist backed by the Tea Party, Christine O’Donnell, who was even forced to deny rumours that she was a witch. Castle, the moderate former governor of the state, had polled consistently ahead of the Democratic candidate, Chris Coons by appealing to centrists. O’Donnell nullified this effect after her defeat of Castle, allowing Coons to win the state with some ease.
What would have been the most high-profile Republican scalp was the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, who hung on to his Nevada seat. His challenger, arch-conservative Sharron Angle, committed a number of faux-pas on the campaign trail, including her declaration in support of the US withdrawing from the United Nations, in part to protest against the UN’s tendency to promote “fraudulent science such as climate change”. As with O’Donnell in Delaware, Angle isolated moderates and managed to snatch defeat for the Republicans from the jaws of victory in a contest against a very poorly regarded incumbent in Senator Reid.
There were some successes for the Tea Party, most notably for Marco Rubio, tipped as a future GOP presidential candidate, who was elected to the Senate candidate in the crucial state of Florida, comfortably defeating his former Republican colleague and incumbent senator Charlie Crist.
Nevertheless, the movement has had a polarising effect which may prove to be toxic to the Republicans’ chances of regaining the White House in 2012. O’Donnell, Angle, Joe Miller of Alaska (who was defeated by a write-in candidate, incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski) and other right-wing politicians may have benefited amongst traditional conservatives, but have not endeared themselves to moderate Americans.
It may have been that Boehner’s tears betrayed a sense of apprehension at the looming prospect of a civil war for the soul of the Republican Party. That the GOP failed to pick up states that they might have been expected to win had there not been a divisive Tea Party-backed candidate instead of a moderate may have actually pleased the Republican establishment. Time alone will tell if the Tea Party proves to be a busted flush, but Republicans must hope that its influence and its polarising tendencies will have been severely blunted by its failures.
A further difficulty faced by the GOP is the distinct lack of credible, unifying challengers to Obama in 2012. Moderate Republicans such as Mitt Romney may be more appealing to Middle America, but the GOP base is far more enthusiastic for more conservative figures such as Palin. Tea Partyers – Palin was outspoken in her backing for Angle, Miller and O’Donnell – will have had their credentials weakened, however, by last week’s disappointments.
But if the generally positive results were tinged with some frustration for Republicans, then the Democrats find themselves in rather more trouble. Just two years after his triumphant and historic victory, Obama faces the prospect of political deadlock on Capitol Hill.
What will have pained – not to mention worried – the Democrats is the loss of a number of traditionally liberal states to Republican candidates. Perhaps most notable of these was Illinois, the state Obama himself represented in the Senate prior to 2008. The Prairie State, with a population of thirteen million and which gave Obama 62 percent of the vote two years ago, elected Mark Kirk, who won relatively comfortably in spite of allegations that he partly fabricated his military record, to the Senate and came within a whisker of taking the Governor’s mansion.
Obama’s approval ratings have been consistently below 50 percent, and among registered independents – a voting bloc which launched him into the White House – numerous polls have shown less than 40 percent approve of his presidency. Even Democrats have taken issue with their president. In the Democratic bastion of Rhode Island, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate told Obama to take his endorsement and “shove it”. He came third; the victor was an independent liberal.
Indeed, some Democratic victors may prove to be a challenge for Obama and the party hierarchy to work with. Joe Manchin, elected to the Senate to represent West Virginia, is a self-depicted conservative Democrat who has made a great issue out of the fact that he opposed President Obama’s plan to incentivise the reduction of carbon dioxide production.
Yet, in what may be seen as a blessing in disguise, Republican control of the House of Representatives may take some of the pressure off Obama and the Democrats. Obama may well attempt to pin the blame for political deadlock on to a stubborn Republican-led House. In addition, through worsening economic times, Republicans will not be able to wash their hands of responsibility and will have no choice but to share some of the blame. The anti-incumbency wave ridden by so many Republicans may not last now that they are part of the establishment.
In spite of the apparent torrent of bad news for Democratic strategists last Tuesday, the midterm elections still provide Obama and his party with hope. They will know that, but for the influence of the Tea Party, they may well have lost both Houses of Congress. Obama will also be warmed by the slim possibility of a unifying Republican candidate being selected following the long and divisive primary season, which starts in just fourteen months time.
Perhaps it was the thought of the hurdles ahead that drove Boehner to tears. Tuesday’s results were a great success for his Republican Party; but he as much as anyone is aware that there is little scope for celebration.
