Four losses, but the underdogs show their worth

Five World Cup matches so far – and five wins for the overwhelming favourites. But all four of the underdogs in today’s matches provided terrific excitement for neutrals and proved that the results of most pool stage matches can not be taken granted.

First up was Romania, who pushed Scotland hard and, before a Paterson penalty and a brace of tries in the last minutes from winger Simon Danielli, threatened to cause a massive upset.

As it is, the Oaks will feel hugely disappointed that they failed to secure a losing bonus point. Coach Andy Robinson has a lot of work to do, but he will be relieved that, thanks to Danielli’s second touch down, they wrapped up a bonus point that, simultaneously, they denied Romania.

Also in Pool B, England edged out top seeds Argentina 13-9 in a dire encounter that saw an incredible eleven missed penalty kicks. Before kick-off, the South Americans were regarded as such a shadow of the side that ensured they were ranked fourth in the world rankings that England were installed as 1/8 favourites.

But the Pumas led for most of the match in the swanky new Otago Stadium before a late score from replacement scrum half Ben Youngs gave England the advantage for the first time in an encounter that was dominated by both sides’ ill-discipline.

Martin Hernandez, Felipe Contepomi and – most surprisingly – Jonny Wilkinson had an appalling time kicking at goal. Argentina’s persistence in attempting to utilise Hernandez’s boot from penalties just inside the English half should be questioned. Indeed, the fourth time this happened (and the fourth time Hernandez sent the ball wide) was enough for those watching to seriously question the merits of electing to kick at goal despite, clearly not having a sufficiently able kicker.

Wilkinson was uncharacteristically off-target, allowing Argentina to retain a 9-3 lead, despite their own problems from the tee, before Youngs crossed to calm the visibly enraged Martin Johnson.

France made hard work of defeating a dynamic Japanese side, who pegged les Bleus back to a 25-21 lead with ten minutes remaining, before three late tries took away from the Brave Blossoms much of the credit that their performance in the first seventy minutes merited.

James Arlidge, Japan’s New Zealand-born outside-half, scored all of his side’s points, including two tries, and the Japanese, under coach John Kirwan, were very disciplined, rucked impressively and have a real livewire in left winger Hirotoki Onozawa. France looked on the rocks for periods in the second half, but had enough class in the end to wrap up the bonus-point win.

Today’s other match saw Fiji run in six tries – four from Vereniki Godeva – in a 49-25 success over Namibia, whose outside-half Theuns Kotze dropped three goals. The Africans scored two tries, including a magnificent one for second row Heinze Koll Fiji were impressive, but Namibia, the lowest ranked side in the tournament, will take pride in their plucky showing.

World rugby, too, will be heartened by today in which all four underdogs impressed, albeit in losing causes.

Rugby World Cup: Pool A preview

Favourites at nearly every World Cup since they won the inaugural tournament in 1987, also on home soil, New Zealand will be desperate to rid themselves of their ‘chokers’ tag, and there is no better opportunity than now. The All Blacks approached the tournament in a rich vein of form, thrashing South Africa and comfortably seeing off Australia in the opening encounters of this season’s Tri Nations competition. However, a defeat to the Springboks in Port Elizabeth – albeit in a match in which New Zealand fielded a reserve line-up – allowed Australia the chance, which they duly took, to avenge their earlier defeat against the All Blacks.

That defeat to the Wallabies has made the New Zealand public even more nervous than they already were, and, despite the obvious denials, is likely to have a similar effect on the team. Group rivals France are something of a bogey team for the hosts, having knocked them out of the 1999 and 2007 tournaments in two of the most famous matches in World Cup history. This group, more than any other, has two teams of a far higher quality than the other three, Tonga, Japan and Canada.

Both the All Blacks and the French would be extremely upset not to beat each of those teams by at least twenty points, and there is very little scope for an upset. New Zealand should defeat France at Auckland’s Eden Park, although France will be hopeful that they can take advantage of the pressure that the hosts are under. To do so they must close down the All Blacks’ backs, primarily Zac Guildford, Cory Jane and . New Zealand will also seek to dominate up front, but the French forwards are no pushovers themselves, and Marc Lievremont’s men must retain their discipline in order to cause an upset. That, though, is by no means out of the question; with both teams having a reputation for free-flowing rugby, the fixture, on 24 September, is likely to be one of the highlights of the group stage.

Japan were disappointed not to be chosen as hosts of this tournament – although they have since been awarded the 2019 event – and they will want to make a strong showing in order to build-up their support over the course of the next eight years. They will be acutely aware that sixteen years ago, the last time they shared a group with New Zealand they conceded the most points in a World Cup match ever, losing to the All Blacks by 145 points to seventeen. They will avoid a similar scoreline this year, but they will focus their attention on attempting to defeat Canada and Tonga. The Cherry Blossoms, under coach John Kirwan, will be filled with confidence after having won the Pacific Nations Cup earlier this year, beating Tonga and Fiji.

Canada, fresh from their own second place finish at this year’s Churchill Cup, in which they beat Italy A (who went on to defeat Tonga in the Plate final) and Russia, were also in Japan’s group in 2007. That meeting resulted in a 12-12 draw, in a thrilling contest that was nevertheless short of high-class rugby. The three fixtures between the lesser teams in Pool A will be worthy contests, and each team will approach them with the hope, or even expectation, of winning.

Predictions:

New Zealand 71-8 Tonga
France 62-13 Japan
Tonga 25-22 Canada
New Zealand 78-10 Japan
France 48-9 Canada
Tonga 24-16 Japan
New Zealand 29-19 France
Canada 23-29 Japan
France 55-6 Tonga
New Zealand 61-16 Canada