Thursday sees the first electoral test of this parliament, with voters in the constituency of Oldham East and Saddleworth going to the polls to choose their new MP, following the disqualification – via a rarely-convened electoral court – of Labour’s former immigration minister Phil Woolas.
With national opinion polls giving Labour a slight lead over the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats apparently stuck at around 10 percent support, the by-election gives the parties the first hard evidence of public opinion on the coalition government and its efforts to reduce the deficit, including controversial measures such as raising the cap on tuition fees.
The vote in May gave victory to Woolas by the exceptionally narrow margin of 103 votes, out of the nearly 45,000 that were cast. The defeated Lib Dem, Elwyn Watkins, successfully argued to the election court that Woolas’ electoral literature, which suggested that Watkins was in league with Islamic extremists, was untrue and slanderous, and the result was voided.
The constituency’s ability to act as a political barometer is further enhanced by the fact that Conservative candidate Kashif Ali, despite coming third in May, was still only 2,400 votes, or 5.5 percentage points, behind Woolas.
With Ali and Watkins both standing again, challenging Labour’s Debbie Abrahams, the election will indicate how the fortunes of the parties have changed in the last eight months. The stakes are high for all three party leaders, but particularly so for Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg.
Miliband has failed to stamp his authority on his party, and despite Labour’s strong polling, his personal ratings have steadily declined. One recent YouGov poll for the Sunday Times suggested that his net approval ratings stand at a lowly minus 21 percent, compared to David Cameron’s 2 percent. The net level of satisfaction among Labour voters is, at 33 percent, perhaps Miliband’s biggest headache – in comparison, the PM has a massive 92 percent net approval from Tory voters.
For Miliband to lose the seat would be a damning indictment of his leadership so far. Although it would be, in all probability, much too early for his position to be challenged, it would certainly weaken him, provide a further stick for his opponents, both within the party and without, to beat him with, and boost morale within the government.
Clegg has, potentially, a much bigger problem, however. If the Liberal Democrat vote collapses on a scale indicated by national opinion polls, his days as leader of the party – and almost certainly, as Deputy Prime Minister – may well be numbered.
Lib Dem MPs, heading towards electoral oblivion, may prefer to be led by a figure less personally and politically attached to the Tory hierarchy. With elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and local councils coming up, a poor Lib Dem showing in a seat they came within a whisker of taking last May could provide the party with the motivation they needed to ditch Clegg.
The prospects of a ‘yes’ vote in the forthcoming referendum on whether the UK should adopt the Alternative Vote system – a flagship Lib Dem contribution to the coalition agreement – would also be threatened if the unpopularity of Clegg’s party makes Lib Dem campaigning for its adoption toxic. If Clegg himself, and his unwavering support for the coalition, is seen as an electoral liability, he may be forced out even before the AV referendum.
Indeed, because the coalition would be put under threat if Clegg was ousted – and in turn because of a crushing defeat for Watkins – David Cameron has apparently deliberately undertaken a low-key Conservative campaign in the constituency.
Some from within his party have complained that the Conservatives had a legitimate chance of winning the seat, or at least pushing the Lib Dems into third, which has been scuppered by the PM putting loyalty to the coalition above party partisanship.
Nevertheless, Cameron’s preferences are justified. The Tories, even if they have maintained their levels of support since the general election, would find it very tough to take the seat from a resurgent Labour Party. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have shed support, but tactical voting from Conservatives could make it a tight race.
In any case, Cameron needs to keep the support of the Lib Dems in the House of Commons. Clegg is his key asset in this regard, so Cameron needs Clegg to be reasonably successful, and a seat in which the Tories are third gives the PM scope to shore up his coalition ally without – seriously – undermining his own leadership.
As the campaign enters its final few days, two opinion polls of the constituency have suggested that Labour holds a comfortable lead, with the Tories a poor third. It is the job of Watkins and his activists to attempt to persuade Conservatives to support him as the only option that could lead to a Labour defeat.
A convincing Labour win would give them a boost to go on the attack and put real strain on the coalition, which would be shored up by a strong Lib Dem showing, especially if Watkins is catapulted to victory on the back of support from nominally-Conservative voters. Potentially, the very political direction of the country may be determined by the voters of Oldham East and Saddleworth on a chilly Thursday in January.
