As voters go to the polls this week, Cardiff is likely to be a bellwether council in terms both of the Liberal Democrat collapse and the Labour resurgence.
In power for the last eight years – albeit initially in a minority administration before an electoral pact with Plaid Cymru four years ago – Wales’s biggest council has given the Lib Dems a platform to prove their local government credentials.
The party currently has 35 councillors out of a total of 75, and an electoral pact with Plaid’s six members saw Glaswegian Rodney Berman return as council leader for a second four-year term after the 2008 vote.
But there is a very real prospect the party’s representation will be cut dramatically after the votes have been counted, and the intrigue is likely to be whether or not Labour can gain overall control of the council rather than whether they will be the largest party.
The problem for the Lib Dems is perhaps their surprising success in the last two council elections in Cardiff. They hold a swathe of seats which would appear to be typically Labour, including Butetown (the Labour defeat in 2008 was described by Cardiff South and Penarth MP Alun Michael as “an aberration”), Grangetown, Caerau, Adamsdown and Llandaff North. Labour dominance in Splott was also challenged by the election of a Lib Dem to one of its three seats in 2008.
Those wards alone comprise seven Lib Dem defences, and it would not be a surprise to see Labour gain all of them. Elsewhere, the four Lib Dems in the Plasnewydd ward – including Berman – face an anxious bid for re-election.
It is not only Labour which looks set to profit from a decline in Lib Dem support. Despite recent problems for their London coalition partners, and depending on how the Lib Dem vote holds up, the Conservatives could also cash in on such a collapse.
Seats in the leafy northern suburbs are far more Conservative-inclined than anywhere else in the city – Cardiff North is the only one of the city’s four constituencies to have a Tory MP – and the party will be targeting Lib Dem seats in wards like Heath and Cyncoed. In Heath, Lib Dem Fenella Bowden was elected alongside two Tories in 2008, beating out the third Conservative by just 58 votes.
Bowden is standing again, but as one of three Heath and Birchgrove Independents; that move is likely to fatally damage Lib Dem hopes of holding the seat, although whether Bowden is returned or the seat moves into the Tory column is too close to call.
But those Conservative gains will probably not be enough to offset the damage Labour look set to inflict. The Tories are the official opposition in Cardiff City Hall, holding one more seat than Labour. But the party of First Minister Carwyn Jones has a far broader appeal across the city and will be able to make far deeper inroads next month than the Tories managed in 2008.
Labour would be disappointed not to take the Conservative seats of Rumney and Pentyrch – which the Conservatives held in an August 2008 by-election by just 12 votes. The Tories will be pessimistic about Rumney, where one of the two Tory incumbents, Duncan MacDonald, resigned the party whip in March and is now standing as an independent. In Pentyrch, Conservative Craig Williams is a popular councillor but faces a near-impossible against the likely tide of Labour gains.
The Conservatives would be disappointed to lose any of the six combined seats in the wards of Pontprennau & Old St Mellons and Llanishen, although offensive material posted online by a Labour candidate in Llanishen caused him to be suspended from the party and handed the four Tory incumbents a boost.
Most wards of Cardiff North should remain solidly Conservative. But one of the largest, Rhiwbina, is certain to re-elect popular independents and Tory defectees Adrian Robson and Deputy Lord Mayor Jayne Cowan. Fellow independent Eleanor Sanders, replacing incumbent Brian Jones, should also be elected.
Plaid, meanwhile, have never managed to gain much of a foothold in the city and their six members – seven were elected in 2008, but a by-election in the Riverside ward was lost to Labour last year – come from just three wards.
They will almost certainly hold the Creigiau and St Fagan’s seat of Lord Mayor Delme Bowen and should be safe in Fairwater, where leader Neil McEvoy holds one of the three seats.
There has been almost a complete absence of Welsh polling since Leanne Wood took over as Plaid leader, so the electoral consequences of her victory have yet to be tested. But while Plaid are likely to struggle to hold on to their remaining two councillors in Riverside, they are working hard to pick up seats elsewhere.
In Butetown, where Labour are considered the nominal favourites, Plaid’s Liz Musa has fought a strong campaign and, after receiving the endorsement of a former Labour councillor and community stalwart, could take the seat in what is expected to be a close three-way battle.
McEvoy has also targeted Ely, Grangetown, Llanrumney and Canton, but if Plaid beat Labour in any of those wards it would be a grim night for the reds.
The minor parties are not likely to see any success, and UKIP will be unable to capitalise on recent poll boosts as they are only fielding two candidates across the city.
Wards to watch:
Butetown (1 member): Lib Dem incumbent. This diversified ward is traditionally a Labour seat but a strong Plaid campaign could swing it for the nationalists.
Grangetown (3): Three Lib Dem incumbents. Labour will be hopeful of retaking this ward, but there is likely to be a strong Plaid showing here. A party split would not be a surprise.
Heath (3): Two Tory, one Lib Dem (now independent) incumbent. Whether the vote for Councillor Fenella Bowden was for the party or personal will decide whether the Tories can hold their seats, gain Bowden’s or perhaps even lose their two incumbents.
Llandaff (2): Two Lib Dem incumbents. The “city within a city” is a tight three-way between the major UK parties. Labour could come from third, or a split left vote could allow the Tories through if their vote holds up.
Pontprennau & Old St. Mellons (2): Two Tory incumbents. Labour are breathing down the Conservatives’ necks. Dianne Rees should be safe; the second Tory seat is very much up for grabs.
Riverside (3): Two Plaid, one Labour incumbent. Labour’s 2011 by-election gain here might indicate this should be two more Labour gains, but new Plaid leader Leanne Wood will be hopeful of boosting her party’s appeal.
