Westminster has long prided itself as being the original home of democratic government. Now, though, there is great anger with British politicians, and this national icon conjures up images of duck houses and bell towers, following last year’s MPs’ expenses scandal. The revelations in recent weeks of former ministers boasting about how their influence in government could be hired, along with MPs of all sides not declaring interests in foreign nations’ affairs after having been hosted by the governments of those countries, has further sullied this tarnished reputation.
With such a prevailing sense of hostility, there has been speculation that the coming general election will see depressed support for the three main parties at the expense of smaller ones.
At the European elections of June 2009, only 57 percent voted for one of the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats, in which the United Kingdom Independence Party polled behind only the Tories, and the British National Party picked up two MEPs. But can these and other minor parties translate this success into seats in the House of Commons?
There are only a few constituencies – outside Northern Ireland, which has its own, separate political parties – with the potential to fall to a party, or independent candidate, other than the main three, or the nationalists in Scotland and Wales. In 2005, only three constituencies did so: George Galloway won Bethnal Green and Bow on a cynical anti-Iraq War ticket; Dr Richard Taylor held onto his seat in Worcestershire in which his single issue had been to avoid the closure of Kidderminster hospital; while Labour lost a safe seat to an independent in South Wales after the party’s imposition of an all-women shortlist excluded a popular local choice from being a candidate.
This time, the Green Party hopes to win its first ever parliamentary seat in Brighton Pavilion, where its leader, Caroline Lucas, led the Tories by 35 percent to 27 percent according to a poll of December last year. Nick Griffin, the BNP’s leader, is standing in Barking, the constituency where the party received its highest share of the vote five years ago. This was only 17 percent, though, and it seems likely to remain in Labour hands, particularly when one considers the likelihood of anti-BNP tactical voting.
Meanwhile, UKIP’s most well-known figure, the former leader Nigel Farage, is standing against the speaker in Buckingham. As is the convention, the three main parties are not challenging the speaker, and Farage hopes to capitalise on what he has labelled a lack of parliamentary representation for those constituents. Yet UKIP has itself suffered from the corruption of its elected representatives, with two of its MEPs – both of whom were expelled by the party – convicted of fraud and jailed in recent years.
Independent ‘celebrity’ candidates have also emerged. Perhaps trying to emulate Martin Bell’s iconic ousting of Tory Neil Hamilton in 1997, the television personality Esther Rantzen is standing in Luton South, against a Labour MP heavily implicated in the expenses scandal. However, the sting has been taken out of her campaign, too, when the MP involved announced that she would step down at the election, as are the majority of Members who were disgraced in the affair.
Therein lies the problem for minor party candidates. For the public, it is one thing to register their disapproval with their MP, or indeed politicians in general; it is quite another to elect a candidate from a non-mainstream party. Smaller parties, and especially independent members, have very little influence in Parliament, and this is something that the electorate would be very reluctant to choose.
Martin Bell in 1997 also had the advantage of Labour and the Liberal Democrats refusing to put up candidates, meaning that he had a clear run as the ‘anti-sleaze candidate’. This time around, with all parties implicated in the scandal, opposition has taken the form of a ‘plague on all your houses’ rather than against any one party in particular, meaning that electoral repercussions have been blunted.
For these reasons, it is likely that, despite the speculation about their improved showing in the general election, whenever it may be, the minor parties will barely – if at all – improve the number of MPs in the Commons. The odds-on favourite for the number of independent seats is less than three, while the three main parties together regularly poll around 88 percent of the vote in opinion polls. This is, admittedly, 5 points lower than at the 2005 election, but the slight increase will have very limited parliamentary impact.
It appears clear that as a whole, the main parties will avoid punishment from the electorate, even if turnout is not predicted to be high. Individual MPs – those who have not already been forced to step aside – may well suffer. But, despite the scandals which seem recently to have become a regular occurrence, the angry public will not want to forgo their political voice in order to make short-term points.
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
Wednesday, 3 February 2010
Electoral system provides Gordon Brown with a small glimmer of hope
If Labour loses the General Election due to be held by the beginning of June, historians may well look back on the 6th October 2007 as the date that the government’s chances of remaining in power were effectively ended. David Cameron and George Osborne, in the week before, had given well-received speeches to the Conservative Party conference, amid much speculation that Gordon Brown would call a snap election. Labour had been leading in most opinion polls since the summer, but the Prime Minister’s eventual decision not to call an election was seized upon by opposition leaders as being symptomatic of a party unprepared to risk defeat.
Since Brown announced his decision, Labour has very much been on the back foot. Opinion poll after opinion poll has given the Conservatives a comfortable lead in terms of vote share. Just three national polls since Brown’s decision not to go to the country have shown Labour in the lead, the last time by just 1 point over two years ago. The Conservatives, by contrast, have generally had a fairly consistent double-figure lead, their peak coming in September 2008 when an Ipsos MORI poll put them 28 percentage points ahead of Labour.
Yet despite these grim figures for Labour, party shares appear to have evened out at about 40 percent for the Conservatives, 30 to Labour and 20 for the Liberal Democrats, and there has been increased speculation in recent months that the next election will produce a hung parliament, with no one party gaining an overall majority of MPs in the House of Commons. Some Labour optimists have even suggested that Brown may be able to cling on to his job, winning an unprecedented fourth successive term for Labour.
It is the British electoral system which provides Labour with much hope in this regard. The populations of Labour-held seats are generally much smaller than those with Tory MPs, meaning that Labour MPs need fewer votes on average to be elected to Westminster. At the 2005 General Election, the Isle of Wight, a relatively comfortable seat for David Cameron, had over 100,000 registered voters. By contrast, Rhondda, in south Wales – where Labour won two of every three votes cast – is home to less than half that number. Indeed, in 2005 in England, the Conservatives won more votes than Labour, despite which they received 90 fewer MPs.
The task for a Labour victory, therefore, is not quite as daunting as it would appear. The most recent opinion poll, undertaken by ComRes and published on 2nd February in the Independent, put the Conservatives at 38 percent, Labour on 31 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 19 percent, which, on a uniform national swing, would actually bring about a hung parliament. David Cameron would have the largest number of MPs though, with 302 out of a total of 650.
Even so, Labour would be likely to take such a result as an indication of support, conveniently ignoring the inbuilt bias of the electoral system, which would result, if it were Labour were leading 38 to 31, in a majority for Brown of over 100 seats. Nevertheless, if the polls are consistent in predicting such a relatively narrow Tory lead, a hung parliament is likely to be more than simply the subject of speculation.
However, it is dangerous to assume that there will be a uniform national swing. One important factor to consider is the extent of tactical voting. In Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997, Liberal Democrat and Labour supporters voted for the party most likely to defeat sitting Conservative MPs. Although the level of anti-Labour sentiment at the forthcoming election is not quite at the level of vitriol aimed at John Major’s party thirteen years ago, it is likely that many nominal supporters of the Tories or the Lib Dems will back the party more strongly placed to defeat Labour in their constituencies.
Much also depends on the scope of regional variation. Labour’s support in Scotland, for example, appears not to have declined to as great an extent as in the rest of the country. Meanwhile, in the south of England – excluding London –Labour faces annihilation. Indeed, it is likely that the outcomes in Labour to Conservative swing seats, especially in the Midlands, will decide whether the election of 2010 will be the first since 1974 to result a hung parliament.
If this were to be the result, Nick Clegg would have the role of kingmaker, with Brown and Cameron both attempting to woo him in order to support their respective parties in a coalition government. The Lib Dems are committed to a form of proportional representation, so for Clegg to be willing to enter a coalition with either party, he would probably demand an embrace of a commitment to electoral reform. If Labour had avoided outright defeat purely by virtue of an unfair electoral system, it would put Brown in quite a dilemma. However, before such eventualities can be considered, there is a long campaign ahead. In politics, after all, a week is a long time.
Since Brown announced his decision, Labour has very much been on the back foot. Opinion poll after opinion poll has given the Conservatives a comfortable lead in terms of vote share. Just three national polls since Brown’s decision not to go to the country have shown Labour in the lead, the last time by just 1 point over two years ago. The Conservatives, by contrast, have generally had a fairly consistent double-figure lead, their peak coming in September 2008 when an Ipsos MORI poll put them 28 percentage points ahead of Labour.
Yet despite these grim figures for Labour, party shares appear to have evened out at about 40 percent for the Conservatives, 30 to Labour and 20 for the Liberal Democrats, and there has been increased speculation in recent months that the next election will produce a hung parliament, with no one party gaining an overall majority of MPs in the House of Commons. Some Labour optimists have even suggested that Brown may be able to cling on to his job, winning an unprecedented fourth successive term for Labour.
It is the British electoral system which provides Labour with much hope in this regard. The populations of Labour-held seats are generally much smaller than those with Tory MPs, meaning that Labour MPs need fewer votes on average to be elected to Westminster. At the 2005 General Election, the Isle of Wight, a relatively comfortable seat for David Cameron, had over 100,000 registered voters. By contrast, Rhondda, in south Wales – where Labour won two of every three votes cast – is home to less than half that number. Indeed, in 2005 in England, the Conservatives won more votes than Labour, despite which they received 90 fewer MPs.
The task for a Labour victory, therefore, is not quite as daunting as it would appear. The most recent opinion poll, undertaken by ComRes and published on 2nd February in the Independent, put the Conservatives at 38 percent, Labour on 31 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 19 percent, which, on a uniform national swing, would actually bring about a hung parliament. David Cameron would have the largest number of MPs though, with 302 out of a total of 650.
Even so, Labour would be likely to take such a result as an indication of support, conveniently ignoring the inbuilt bias of the electoral system, which would result, if it were Labour were leading 38 to 31, in a majority for Brown of over 100 seats. Nevertheless, if the polls are consistent in predicting such a relatively narrow Tory lead, a hung parliament is likely to be more than simply the subject of speculation.
However, it is dangerous to assume that there will be a uniform national swing. One important factor to consider is the extent of tactical voting. In Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997, Liberal Democrat and Labour supporters voted for the party most likely to defeat sitting Conservative MPs. Although the level of anti-Labour sentiment at the forthcoming election is not quite at the level of vitriol aimed at John Major’s party thirteen years ago, it is likely that many nominal supporters of the Tories or the Lib Dems will back the party more strongly placed to defeat Labour in their constituencies.
Much also depends on the scope of regional variation. Labour’s support in Scotland, for example, appears not to have declined to as great an extent as in the rest of the country. Meanwhile, in the south of England – excluding London –Labour faces annihilation. Indeed, it is likely that the outcomes in Labour to Conservative swing seats, especially in the Midlands, will decide whether the election of 2010 will be the first since 1974 to result a hung parliament.
If this were to be the result, Nick Clegg would have the role of kingmaker, with Brown and Cameron both attempting to woo him in order to support their respective parties in a coalition government. The Lib Dems are committed to a form of proportional representation, so for Clegg to be willing to enter a coalition with either party, he would probably demand an embrace of a commitment to electoral reform. If Labour had avoided outright defeat purely by virtue of an unfair electoral system, it would put Brown in quite a dilemma. However, before such eventualities can be considered, there is a long campaign ahead. In politics, after all, a week is a long time.
Thursday, 30 April 2009
In homage to...Tai O, Hong Kong
Sparkling skyscrapers making up one of the world’s most glamorous cityscapes. Busy commuters from all over the world brokering deals. Shops filled to the brim with electronics. Traditional eateries, with tables packed together. A blend of remaining British imperialism and traditional Chinese culture. This is the Hong Kong many of us imagine, with good reason. But many of the true delights of this Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China simply are not those of a bustling metropolis.
Arriving at Chep Lap Kok international airport, one cannot help be struck by the amount of greenery surrounding the city. Peaks – the famous Victoria Peak is but one – dominate the land mass of the former British territory. There is ample opportunity for hiking, or something a little less energetic. However, it is the communities and smaller settlements that these peaks help to hide which are perhaps most at odds with the image of urban Hong Kong.
One such community is the tiny fishing village of Tai O. Situated at the far west of Lantau Island, itself just west of Hong Kong Island and south west of the mainland peninsular, Tai O is a remarkable settlement. There is no evidence of skyscrapers here. Houses hang precariously over the harbour, their stilts protruding from the murky waters. Tiny fishing boats bob unceremoniously on the water, fishermen using their lunch breaks to rest in the shade away from the fierce July sun. On land, ramshackle streets, barely a few feet wide, twist around tumbledown houses and shops. Whole arrays of seafood products sit on simple tables, priced even lower than the very reasonable fares paid by the city-dwellers. A shark skin hangs from one window; the owner of the shop, sitting on the street beckoning and shouting at locals and tourists alike, smokes a cigarette.
I boarded a twenty-seater tourist boat, squeezing in underneath the orange and yellow canopy, for a short trip in order to catch a glimpse of the famed pink dolphins just off the coast. The boat did not seem particularly steady, or indeed safe. If they have even come across health and safety regulations here, they steadfastly ignored them. It was refreshing.
This, it seems, is tourism at its most pure. I was struck by a tiny settlement, charming and not something sterile or generic like many of today’s popular tourist hotspots. Here, locals do what they always do and what they always have done. The city of Hong Kong is beautiful and exciting. But it is places like Tai O which truly warm the heart.
Arriving at Chep Lap Kok international airport, one cannot help be struck by the amount of greenery surrounding the city. Peaks – the famous Victoria Peak is but one – dominate the land mass of the former British territory. There is ample opportunity for hiking, or something a little less energetic. However, it is the communities and smaller settlements that these peaks help to hide which are perhaps most at odds with the image of urban Hong Kong.
One such community is the tiny fishing village of Tai O. Situated at the far west of Lantau Island, itself just west of Hong Kong Island and south west of the mainland peninsular, Tai O is a remarkable settlement. There is no evidence of skyscrapers here. Houses hang precariously over the harbour, their stilts protruding from the murky waters. Tiny fishing boats bob unceremoniously on the water, fishermen using their lunch breaks to rest in the shade away from the fierce July sun. On land, ramshackle streets, barely a few feet wide, twist around tumbledown houses and shops. Whole arrays of seafood products sit on simple tables, priced even lower than the very reasonable fares paid by the city-dwellers. A shark skin hangs from one window; the owner of the shop, sitting on the street beckoning and shouting at locals and tourists alike, smokes a cigarette.
I boarded a twenty-seater tourist boat, squeezing in underneath the orange and yellow canopy, for a short trip in order to catch a glimpse of the famed pink dolphins just off the coast. The boat did not seem particularly steady, or indeed safe. If they have even come across health and safety regulations here, they steadfastly ignored them. It was refreshing.
This, it seems, is tourism at its most pure. I was struck by a tiny settlement, charming and not something sterile or generic like many of today’s popular tourist hotspots. Here, locals do what they always do and what they always have done. The city of Hong Kong is beautiful and exciting. But it is places like Tai O which truly warm the heart.
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