The dubious tactics of Blair's return to the political fray

Tony Blair’s return to the domestic political fray has provoked the range of responses and polarisation of opinion that Britain had grown accustomed to during his ten years in Downing Street. There can be no doubting, though, the debating skills of Labour’s longest-serving Prime Minister, which contrast markedly with those of Gordon Brown’s clumsy rhetoric. It has been widely speculated that the Labour Party encouraged Blair’s participation in the campaign to help encourage ‘Worcester woman’ – a stereotypically Conservative voter whom Blair successfully wooed by shifting his party towards the centre of the British political spectrum – to choose the party again, rather than transferring allegiance to David Cameron’s Tories.

Whether or not such a strategy is a good idea, or even an election-winning one, will naturally depend on the public’s reaction to his presence. Although presiding over two landslide election victories, in 1997 and 2001, his decision to follow President Bush into wars in Afghanistan in 2001, and in particular Iraq two years later, have perhaps defined his time in office. Before the 2005 election a multitude of opinion polls suggested that only one third of the electorate were positive about his premiership.

The Iraq War was a key issue in that election, as evidenced by the Liberal Democrats – the only one of the three main parties to oppose British involvement – increasing their number of votes by almost a million more than the Conservatives, who had backed Blair’s decision. Thus the war was, and remains, deeply unpopular, and Blair’s involvement risks reigniting an issue which, rightly or wrongly, attracts much less coverage today than five years ago.

Blair will undoubtedly persuade some wavering Labour supporters uncomfortable with Gordon Brown that their party still offers much of the same message as it did between 1994 and 2007. Indeed, although recent opinion polls appear to suggest that the gap between Labour and the Tories has closed into hung parliament territory Brown is much more unpopular than Blair. One poll published on Tuesday showed that three times as many people believe that Blair was a better Prime Minister than his Chancellor has so far proved to be.

Thus, Tony Blair’s endorsement of Gordon Brown, which almost seemed like a former US President giving his blessing to a candidate during American primaries, is designed to encourage Downing Street, boost party morale and, ultimately, win over the electorate.

Equally, it smacks of desperation. Gordon Brown insisted that he refused to call an election in October 2007 not because his lead suddenly evaporated, but because he wanted time to set out his vision for the United Kingdom. The reintroduction of Tony Blair, charismatic yet, in the eyes of many British people, tainted by Iraq, undermines Brown’s claim.

Blair is politically skilful; of that there is little doubt. But there is far from unequivocal support for the former PM – some wish he was still in charge but many loathe his legacy. It is, in this sense, a risk that Labour has taken, with a gamble designed to attract some voters having the potential to put others off. Having enjoyed the success and attracted the ridicule that he did, there should be no doubt that Blair’s involvement will galvanise voters from across the political spectrum.