Rugby World Cup: Pool C preview

If current form is an accurate guide, Australia should have no trouble in qualifying from this group, most likely as winners. The Wallabies were impressive in the Tri Nations finale, upsetting the odds to defeat New Zealand 25-20 in Brisbane. They are widely seen as most likely to stop the All Blacks triumphing at the World Cup, and I have come to see them as outright favourites.

In Quade Cooper, James O’Connor (whose place in the starting XV is in doubt after a disciplinary issue), Digby Ioane and Kurtley Beale they may stake a claim to having the strongest back line in world rugby, although the highly skilled Cooper is nevertheless weak defensively and has a tendency to get rattled. It is not inconceivable that his attempts to be too clever could backfire and cost his team dear. Scrum half Will Genia, too, is arguably the best in the world in his position at present.

The Australian forwards are themselves hardly an Achilles heel. Captain James Horwill and Radike Samo are imposing presences; that said, the Wallabies will seek to exploit their advantage out wide. Their principal challenge in the group stage will be Ireland, whose team, by contrast, is aging.

This will almost certainly be the final chance for players such as Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy to make an impact on the international stage, although there are plenty of young – yet experienced – backs in the Irish stage, including Jonathan Sexton and Tommy Bowe. Ireland were disappointing in their warm-up matches, losing all four. They performed badly at the last World Cup, too, and will be desperate to make amends, but although it would be a surprise if they failed to qualify from the pool, it is difficult to see them getting further than the quarterfinals.

Italy have a poor record in World Cups, never having qualified for the knockout phases. Flashes of quality in the Six Nations have been all too rare, although a first win over France in the tournament earlier in 2011 gave cause for much celebration amongst supporters of the Azzurri. Number Eight Sergio Parisse is one of the world’s elite players, but along with other stars such as fellow forwards Andrea Lo Cicero and Martin Castrogiovanni, he cannot, of course, carry the rest of the team. Even so, the perennial third seeds will see Ireland as a target, and will pull out all the stops finally to reach the quarterfinals – and on their day, they are certainly capable of doing so.

The United States and Russia met in the Bowl Final of this summer’s Churchill Cup, where they played out a thrilling (if relatively defensively inept) encounter in which the American Eagles triumphed 32-25. There was plenty of attacking rugby – and US winger Takudzwa Ngwenya is still remembered fondly in the rugby world for burning South Africa’s Bryan Habana in the 2007 World Cup to score a famous try. That score had been set up by another key man for the Eagles, wild-haired flanker and captain Todd Clever.

Russia will be keen to make amends for that defeat in this, their first World Cup tournament. Coached by former Welsh captain Kingsley Jones, the Bears will be forced to perform the traditional minnows’ role of retaining respectability against the bigger sides. Being a physical side should help them in this regard, and neither Ireland nor Italy are likely to be able to run riot against them. This tournament, though, will be little more than a learning process for them.

Predictions:

Australia 56-18 Italy
Ireland 32-13 USA
Russia 20-33 USA
Australia 27-16 Ireland
Italy 45-10 Russia
Australia 61-9 USA
Ireland 34-6 Russia
Italy 32-19 USA
Australia 59-3 Russia
Ireland 24-28 Italy