Interesting to see an ICM poll suggesting that NoToAV would receive 58 per cent in next month's referendum, with a huge gap opening up between the camps.
ICM is regarded by many, particularly Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting.com, as the 'gold standard' pollster, so to have such a big NO lead will surely deflate the YES campaign.
Importantly, the poll also covered Northern Ireland - I believe it is the first time any AV polls have included the province, as its differing party system means it is not included in standard Westminster voting intention questions.
I am slightly wary about this poll, though, for two reasons:
1. It is the first to give such a substantial to either side, and I wonder what has caused such a big jump (even if it was nearly a month since the last ICM poll, the only one to which this latest survey can be accurately compared).
2. I still maintain that YES voters will be more likely to turn out. As with March's National Assembly for Wales powers referendum, many people who would vote NO if they went to the polling station, simply do not care enough to actually go and mark their ballot.
The effect of differential turnout in Scotland and Wales, and those parts of England with local elections, is difficult to gauge - but it may be crucial.
I'll update the blog with any interesting sub-sample results when I have seen them.
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