Canadian General Election, 2 May 2011

On 2 May, Canada will have yet another general election, its fourth in just seven years. Conservative leader Stephen Harper has been Prime Minister since 2006, but has always fallen short of winning a majority, something that has led to the relative instability of politics in Ottawa.

Part of the problem is the existence of one of the strongest regionalist parties in the world – the Bloc Québécois, which desires independence for Quebec. That the party perennially wins around two thirds of the province’s ridings, or approximately fifty seats (in a Parliament of 308) makes it extremely difficult for the national parties – the Conservatives, the Liberals and the New Democrats (NDP) – to secure a majority. With 154 seats required for an overall majority, that hurdle is raised that much higher by the BQ’s consistent success. The national parties, in other words, have to win around 60 per cent of the seats not captured by the BQ.

In 2008, Harper’s Tories nevertheless did come relatively close to securing that elusive majority, winning 143 seats. This time, they may finally achieve it. Polls show them leading the Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals by eight percentage points, but the Liberals appear to be closing the gap.

This seems an election to watch, albeit with the most likely result at this stage being yet another minority government for Harper. Nevertheless, I will update the blog as the election campaign develops.


2008 results:

VOTE SHARE:
Conservative 38%
Liberal 26%
Bloc Québécois 10%
New Democrats 18%
Others 8%


SEATS:
Conservative 143
Liberal 77
Bloc Québécois 49
New Democrats 37
Others 2