Liberals slip further in Canada

There are a number of polls coming out in Canada, with less than a fortnight until the general election. Canada has had minority Conservative governments since 2006, and there is nothing in the new polls to suggest that that is definitely (at least imminently) going to change.

Two such polls, both of which were carried out by Ekos- iPOlitics, have caught the eye in particular, and paint an interesting picture as to what could happen on 2nd May. One, carried out between Monday 18th and Thursday 21st, had the following figures:

Conservatives 34.4%
Liberals 24.7
New Democrats 24.7
Greens 7.8
Bloc Quebecois 6.5

Giving a likely result in terms of seats - ON A UNIFORM NATIONAL SWING - of:

Con 134
Lib 88
NDP 47
BQ 36
Grn 0
Oth 3


The other poll, albeit published on Tuesday, had Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories surging:

Con 37.4%
Lib 24.9
NDP 20
Grn 8.4
BQ 7.8

which would translate into the following number of seats (same caveats):

Con 147
Lib 78
NDP 38
BQ 43
Grn 0
Oth 2

The polls tell us two things. Firstly, Harper looks almost certain to form another government, but that he is close - but not close enough - to that elusive majority government.

Secondly, the Liberals are in danger of being overtaken by Jack Layton's left-of-centre NDP, which is not good news for another hapless Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff.

Thirdly, the Bloc Quebecois is struggling - with some reports even suggesting they trail the NDP in Quebec.

Interesting times.