The Royal Wedding: an unmitigated and unifying triumph for British tradition

Some thoughts about the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton:

1. What a great day to be British. The eyes of the world were on London, which looked fantastic on television, full of happy, good-natured and patriotic crowds. A coup for UK plc, to boost (as well as be further boosted by) next year’s Olympics. It even didn’t rain!

2. The pomp and circumstance was exceptional. It is a cliché – but an accurate one – that foreigner visitors, especially Americans, love it, and you can see why. The carriages were wonderful, Westminster Abbey looked amazing and my friends, even those sceptical about the value of the monarchy, were in awe at the processions and fanfare afforded to the Royals.

3. It was pleasing to see that so much of the country got into the spirit of the event. 35 million Brits followed the event on television or online, hundreds of thousands took part in street parties, one million lined the route and other festivities and bunting is hanging everywhere. I was pleasantly surprised to find that the college bar was packed with those watching the events.

4. It was so overwhelmingly successful that I don’t feel particularly annoyed at the eejit MP and columnist who tried to politicise the event (and I haven’t named them so that I don’t fall into the same trap).

5. This country is so much the better for having a monarchy. Yesterday showed their value, both at uniting the nation as well as their ability to boost our fragile economy. Why some say we should get rid of it, I cannot fathom. Tradition is so important; the very fabric of the United Kingdom is based on having the Royals (one clue being in the name of the country) and to switch to a Republic would be such a shame.

6. Incidentally, it is interesting to note that a large proportion of the world’s richest (per capita) and most developed countries are constitutional monarchies: Andorra, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden. Surely no coincidence!

7. Finally, congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and their families.

P.S. Is it just me, or does Michael Middleton look a lot like an older Fischer, from the film Inception?

Message to the Labour Party over PM's remarks: Calm down, dear

There seems to be a massive overreaction to David Cameron telling shadow chief secretary to the Treasury to "calm down dear".

Labour sources have apparently called the remarks sexist and patronising. OK, so perhaps the PM had no need to give that impression, but his jibe was no more than a light-hearted reference to the Michael Winner insurance advert. Ms Eagle was being particularly annoying, too - the video of the incident makes clear the shrill barracking that she was engaging in while Cameron was trying to speak.

This is Prime Minister's Questions, after all - it's not surprising he was frustrated with her unneccessary and frankly rude efforts at undermining Cameron's answers.

The PM has been noted in the past to have a genial and polite manner in his dealings with MPs' questions, including those on the opposition benches. He has not given the impression of being a bully (unlike his predecessor in Downing Street, perhaps), and today's outburst was simply him snapping in response to uncalled for heckling.

If the Labour Party attempts to make political capital out of this throwaway comment, it will say more about them than the PM (although, in fairness, Ms Eagle has not demanded an apology herself).

Remembering the sacrifices of the ANZACs

“And young people ask me, ‘What are they marching for, and I ask myself the same question’… And the band played Waltzing Matilda… And the old men still answer the call.”

The above is a lyric in the moving song by Eric Bogle, ‘The Band Played Waltzing Matilda’, which refers to the story of an Australian veteran of the First World War who is maimed by the conflict.

Today is ANZAC Day, the Antipodean equivalent of Remembrance Day. Originally commemorating the 80,000 Australians and New Zealanders who died in World War One, it now recognises the sacrifices made by so many members of the Commonwealth for the sake of their allies.

Another almost 200,000 ANZACs were injured, and the impact was profound for such relatively small countries. Australian and New Zealand soldiers were praised highly by many British commanders for their dedication, bravery and their quick adaption to the particularly challenging condition of the Gallipoli Campaign.

When I visited New Zealand in 2008, I attended an ANZAC Day ceremony and cathedral service in Dunedin. We sang three anthems – God Defend New Zealand, Advance Australia Fair and God Save the Queen. It was a moving experience, and one in which the sense of gratitude was profound and almost tangible.

Dawn services and marches are common events that take place every 25th April, as Eric Bogle’s song lyrics alluded to. Commerce is limited, and the whole day is – rightly – dedicated to those who fought for their country and the Commonwealth.

Every 25th April, we should remember and be grateful for the efforts and sacrifices of these allies, who travelled thousands of miles and fought on our behalf.

Super 15 rugby - very refreshing

I watched most of the Super 15 clash between the Crusaders and the Higlanders this morning. Since I visited New Zealand I have felt that the Super 15 is a much better spectacle for fans than anything European club team offer (the French Top 14 runs it the closest) - although it is sometimes perhaps too like an NFL match with gimmicks such as in the picture below (Crusaders v Lions, AMI Stadium, 2008).

Today's game did nothing to change my mind. The High- landers, from Dunedin, beat their Canterbury- based hosts 26-18 in a typically high-tempo, skillful and generally entertaining encounter which contrasts markedly with British club rugby, and especially the dire tournament that is the Magners League.

There were a few cracking tries as well as a large number of line breaks. On the other hand, the defences were generally disciplined, and counter-rucking was used, especially by the Highlanders, to great effect.

The game was blighted neither by constant kicking, which is what the European game seems to have descended to, nor by scrummaging problems, which was a real negative of this season's Six Nations championship.

Even the commentators, led as always by Tony Johnston (almost undoubtedly the best in world rugby at the moment), put ours to shame. Brian Moore and Stuart Barnes actually hinder my enjoyment of a rugby game.

By contrast, the Super 15 has it all, in nearly every aspect of the spectacle. It is a wonderful thing for the rugby fan to wake up to every Saturday morning.

One thing, though. The match was held in Nelson's Trafalgar Park, due to the continued concerns about Christchurch's AMI Stadium after the recent earthquake. Nelson has taken an enlarged role in this year's World Cup as a result of Christchurch's inability to host games. But it is really not a stadium New Zealand would want to showcase to the world.

Liberals slip further in Canada

There are a number of polls coming out in Canada, with less than a fortnight until the general election. Canada has had minority Conservative governments since 2006, and there is nothing in the new polls to suggest that that is definitely (at least imminently) going to change.

Two such polls, both of which were carried out by Ekos- iPOlitics, have caught the eye in particular, and paint an interesting picture as to what could happen on 2nd May. One, carried out between Monday 18th and Thursday 21st, had the following figures:

Conservatives 34.4%
Liberals 24.7
New Democrats 24.7
Greens 7.8
Bloc Quebecois 6.5

Giving a likely result in terms of seats - ON A UNIFORM NATIONAL SWING - of:

Con 134
Lib 88
NDP 47
BQ 36
Grn 0
Oth 3


The other poll, albeit published on Tuesday, had Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories surging:

Con 37.4%
Lib 24.9
NDP 20
Grn 8.4
BQ 7.8

which would translate into the following number of seats (same caveats):

Con 147
Lib 78
NDP 38
BQ 43
Grn 0
Oth 2

The polls tell us two things. Firstly, Harper looks almost certain to form another government, but that he is close - but not close enough - to that elusive majority government.

Secondly, the Liberals are in danger of being overtaken by Jack Layton's left-of-centre NDP, which is not good news for another hapless Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff.

Thirdly, the Bloc Quebecois is struggling - with some reports even suggesting they trail the NDP in Quebec.

Interesting times.

Yes to Fairer Votes?

Just a quick post, but the graphic below shows the fallacy of AV being a more proportional system, something that many will infer from its self-titled campaign of 'Yes to Fairer Votes'.

The graphs show the results of the 1997 general election in percentage of votes (left) and percentage of seats (right). On the right-hand graph, the lighter shades demonstrate the results under AV - Labour getting even more seats (nearly 70 per cent of all seats), and the Conservatives' 30 percent of the vote accounting for just 15 per cent of the seats, or 96 constituencies. Only the Lib Dems' seat share is more proportional - is it any wonder they are the only party united in favour of AV?

P.S. Calculations of what 1997 AV result would have been are from here.

Newcastle United 0-0 Manchester United

Some points:

1. Hernandez's booking for diving should not have been a penalty, whatever Man United officials and fans will claim. From a consistency point of view, perhaps a booking was harsh. On the other hand, though, I would be happy if refs gave yellows every time a player made such a meal of any contact as Hernandez did, though I am aware this might be unworkable.

2. So Lovenkrands' penalty decision. It could easily have been a spotkick, although I don't feel too bitter about it. But if you watch the replay, is the referee even looking?

3. Aside from the controversy, it was a good point for Newcastle. Of course, the Toon are now at the fabled 40-point figure, and are all but safe from relegation. Manchester United started to assert themselves in the second half, but the Magpies had done enough in the first half to ensure that the point was justified.

4. Having said that, though, Ryan Giggs had a poor miss towards the end of the second half, and really should have give his side the lead.

5. Tim Krul was excellent in goal, and for a relatively inexperienced keeper, did especially well at the feet of Hernandez twice. The first of those, inside 90 seconds, was crucial to ensure the Red Devils did not almost immediately have something to defend.

6. Jonas Gutierrez was also very good, causing problems for Man United in ways in which Geordie fans must be somewhat frustrated that he doesn't produce every week.

Newcastle United v Manchester United, St James' Park

Everytime Sir Alex comes to Tyneside, he will remember the day when his side were humiliated 5-0, with Phillipe Albert's glorious chipped fifth goal still one of my favourites of all time, leaving aside any club allegiance.

That scoreline is less likely this evening, with the red United looking to extend their lead over Arsenal at the top of the table. Their recent form at St James' Park should fill them with confidence - they have not lost in Toon since September 2001.

That fixture, a 4-3 win for Newcastle in which the hosts had been pegged back after taking a 3-1 lead before scoring a late winner. and which featured the infamous clash between Roy Keane and Alan Shearer.

The following season at Gallowgate, the Magpies again took the lead, only to lose 6-2.

The last encounter at SJP was a 2-1 victory for the visitors (photo below, in the moments before kick off), although, again, Newcastle took the lead, this time through Peter Lovenkrands.

The reverse fixture this season was the opening game of the season, and NUFC was outclassed 3-0, without ever looking like threatening Edwin van der Sar's goal.

But Newcastle have not been shy in front of goal this campaign, particularly at home. The Toon have scored 36 times at home this season, second only to tonight's visitors.

Sir Alex's team has scored the third highest number of away goals this season, and their away form is by no means as imposing as is their record at home. They have picked up 46 out of a possible 48 points at home, while their away record is 23 points from a maximum of 48.

Newcastle's equivalent record is 21/48 at home and 18/48 away, showing that a). Man Utd are much better at home than they are away, and b). Newcastle's away record is not far behind the Red Devils'.

The Toon Army is fairly positive about their side's chances tonight. Paul Scholes is suspended for the visitors, and Fletcher is ill, although Newcastle miss a host of players too, including Kevin Nolan (also suspended). Stephen Ireland is set to play some part, and needs to prove that Alan Pardew should keep him on Tyneside.

Prediction: If past encounters are anything to go by, this should be a cracker. I'm going to be (relatively) bold and go for Newcastle United 2-2 Manchester United.

Spotify - what next for users?

It seemed too good to be true - and it is, apparently.

Spotify will implement major restrictions on its usage from 1st May - a week on Sunday - to existing as well as new customers on the free version:

As of May 1st, any user who signed up to the free service on or before November 1st 2010 will be able to play each track for free up to a total of 5 times. Users who signed up after the beginning of November will see these changes applied 6 months after the time they set up their Spotify account.

Additionally, total listening time for free users will be limited to 10 hours per month after the first 6 months. That’s equivalent to around 200 tracks or 20 albums.

I always wondered how Spotify could justify providing its huge music selection for free with - let's face it - minimal advertising interruptions (that said, though, the ads were quite grating).

So it is no surprise that changes have to be made. But let's see how the new limits break down. Ten hours a month is equivalent to just twenty minutes a day. Currently, I use Spotify all day, every day that I am working at my laptop. Twenty minutes is nothing, especially with the approaching exam season and the resultant, and seemingly endless, revision.

I also tend to become obsessed with a song, and play it constantly on Spotify. (currently it's The Buggles' 'Video Killed the Radio Star'!) Restricting an individual song to just five plays seems harsh - but, as Spotify point out, it certainly gives users enough time to work out whether they like the track enough to buy it.

So, for me, four options exist:

1. Use minimal, but still free Spotify, supplemented by my smaller iTunes collection and perhaps even a Youtube playlist.

2. Pay for Spotify Premium/Unlimited.

3. Dramatically extend my iTunes library.

4. A combination of the above.

I should declare here that piracy is not an option. I am expecting piracy to rise, at least initially, but I cannot condone that.

Hmm. Just under a fortnight to decide!

AV set to be rejected?

Interesting to see an ICM poll suggesting that NoToAV would receive 58 per cent in next month's referendum, with a huge gap opening up between the camps.

ICM is regarded by many, particularly Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting.com, as the 'gold standard' pollster, so to have such a big NO lead will surely deflate the YES campaign.

Importantly, the poll also covered Northern Ireland - I believe it is the first time any AV polls have included the province, as its differing party system means it is not included in standard Westminster voting intention questions.

I am slightly wary about this poll, though, for two reasons:

1. It is the first to give such a substantial to either side, and I wonder what has caused such a big jump (even if it was nearly a month since the last ICM poll, the only one to which this latest survey can be accurately compared).

2. I still maintain that YES voters will be more likely to turn out. As with March's National Assembly for Wales powers referendum, many people who would vote NO if they went to the polling station, simply do not care enough to actually go and mark their ballot.

The effect of differential turnout in Scotland and Wales, and those parts of England with local elections, is difficult to gauge - but it may be crucial.

I'll update the blog with any interesting sub-sample results when I have seen them.

Football round-up, Sunday 17th April

Wow - two incredible stories in the big matches in England. My heart was thumping at what felt like 200 beats per minute at the end of the match at the Emirates, and I don't even support either of the teams. But first, a sensational result in today's second FA Cup semi:

Bolton 0-5 Stoke

Stoke ripped up the formbook with this win, a result I daresay you could have got 100/1 against before the start of play. Etherington and Huth put the Potters two up within the first twenty minutes leaving favourites Bolton rocked. One more goal before the break from Kenwyne Jones gave Tony Pulis' men a comfortable halftime lead, before a Jon Walters brace emphatically secured Stoke's place in the final.

They will meet yesterday's victors Manchester City, ensuring that the winner will be the first piece of silverware for either team in three decades: Manchester City's last trophy was the 1976 League Cup, while Stoke's was the same title four years before that.

Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool

After 95 minutes, this match was typical of Arsenal's recent form: much possession, but precious little to show for it. Just as the Gunners were preparing to wave goodbye to any chance of a trophy this season, however, Liverpool's otherwise-excellent Jay Spearing blotted his copybook by tripping Cesc Fabregas in the penalty box. Robin van Persie sparked delirious scenes at the Emirates by coolly converting the resulting spotkick, and Arsenal looked, after an hour and a half of fruitless toil, to have secured three priceless points.

Following a lengthy period of treatment for Jamie Carragher earlier in the second half, however, still three minutes of additional time remained, and, extraordinarily, Liverpool struck back. A mindless shove in the area by Emmanuel Eboue gave Dirk Kuyt the chance to level the match, again from the spot, in the 112th minute. He converted with aplomb, blasting his penalty past the flying Wojciech Szczesny (incidentally, my favourite name in professional football, with the possible exception of Dudley 'DJ' Campbell).

The end of the match was marked by a spat by a disgusted Arsene Wenger and a jubilant Kenny Dalglish; Wenger could not argue the award of the penalty (although may have a case that the game should not have continued as long after the end of the eight minutes of added time signalled).

The managers' exchange of words merely added a final twist to a quite remarkable seven minutes in North London.

AV campaign intensifies in increasingly bad-tempered and divisive contest

Twelve months after the general election, British election machines are once again moving up through the gears. 5th May sees a plethora of different contests across the country:

AV referendum
Scottish Parliament
Welsh Assembly
Some English councils/unitary authorities/mayoral contests
Leicester South parliamentary by-election

It is curious to note, and one cannot help but do so, that the only national vote - whether or not the UK should change its method of electing MPs from the First Past the Post system (FPTP) to the Alternative Vote (AV) - is becoming increasingly ill-tempered. Former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown has, in today's Observer, issued a strong rebuke to what he termed the "scaremongering" of the NO campaign.

Lord Ashdown also described the tactics of Conservative Party chairman Baroness Warsi as "tawdry" and "indefensible". Warsi's cabinet colleague, environment secretary Chris Huhne, has already been compared to Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels.

I will not here go into the merits of a YES or NO vote. What is becoming apparent, however, is the relatively small role of Labour leader Ed Miliband in the campaign. Admittedly, he did cause a minor stir after apparently refusing to share a stage with Nick Clegg, but ever since he has taken a back seat role.

This may turn out to be a wise move from Miliband. His detractors might argue that he is not a strong enough leader to take a more active role in the campaign, and with his net approval rating at -19 per cent according to today's YouGov poll, he is far from an automatic vote-winner.

In addition, his party is split almost down the middle on the referendum, making it hard for Miliband to push the issue without the risk of causing splits within the party. Labour grandees Lord Prescott, David Blunkett and Margaret Beckett favour a NO vote, while most of the shadow cabinet have endorsed a YES vote.

Miliband, though, will be pleased to see members of the government attacking each other over the issue, and with Vince Cable's attack on the PM's immigration plans, cracks within the coalition are perhaps starting to emerge. The coalition government has insisted that it will not be fatally wounded whatever the referendum result in May.

But Nick Clegg will be aware that this was his flagship policy from the coalition. The Lib Dems will be demoralised should NO prevail, and Ashdown's remarks display a palpable sense of worry within Cowley Street. Ed Miliband may be backing YES, but, from a political perspective, he might not be too disheartened by a NO vote. He will be able to sit back and take advantage of the likely repercussions.

Football preview – Sunday 17th April

Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City

With the first semi final witnessing a hard-fought Manchester derby, today’s fixture at the national stadium was bound not to enthuse neutral supporters to the same degree. Not that fans of the two teams will care. Stoke, whose crowd at the Britannia Stadium is consistently acknowledged as one of the best in the Premier League, will hope to replicate that atmosphere inside Wembley. The Potters, who have never won the FA Cup, are not 100 per cent safe from relegation, but it would take an exceptional set of results for them to miss out on top-flight football next year.

Bolton, meanwhile, are sitting pretty in eighth position in the table, and Owen Coyle’s first full season in charge could represent one of the most successful in recent years. They will be without cup-tied goal-scoring sensation Daniel Sturridge, who has scored six goals in his eight games for Wanderers. However, they have managed well without him in previous rounds, securing away wins against three Premier League opponents, Wigan (albeit a replay), Fulham and Birmingham.

Prediction: Bolton 2-1 Stoke


Arsenal v Liverpool

Liverpool fans will have noticed that Fernando Torres yesterday extended his run at Chelsea without scoring, something that was put into context by Reds’ striker Andy Carroll opening his account for the club with a brace against Manchester City on Monday. Liverpool were dominant in that fixture, taking a 3-0 lead into half-time and being able to take their collective foot off the gas. As unlikely as it seemed just three months ago, Liverpool have an outside chance securing an automatic Europa League spot – although city rivals Everton are breathing down their necks.

Liverpool’s hosts today, Arsenal, can afford nothing less than a win today to keep their stalling championship hopes alive. Three points at Blackpool last weekend was preceded by a dreadful five-week period, in which they were knocked out of all three cup competitions and managed just three draws in their three Premier League outings. Arsenal’s traditional problem – that they do not score enough goals, in spite of their typical midfield creativity – was exacerbated by the equally familiar goalkeeping problems. Being forced to bring Jens Lehmann back to the club does not bode well for a team chasing the title. Even so, I expect them to raise their game today, and sneak a win in what should be a cracking game of football.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool

Football round-up, Saturday 16th April

FA Cup semi final:

Manchester City 1-0 Manchester United

This match, which saw City deservedly triumph over their neighbours thanks to a second-half goal from Yaya Toure, will be talked about for years to come in the blue half of Manchester. Their long wait for a trophy did not end this evening, of course, but it will probably feel like it. United, who had Paul Scholes rightly sent off, have been denied the chance of a famous treble, and will be smarting after this result. I predicted a United win, and I was surprised by the attitude shown by City, who bossed most of the game. Then again, even Mario Balotelli could get psyched up for a semi final against his team’s greatest rival.

Premier League:

Birmingham 2-0 Sunderland
Blackpool 1-3 Wigan
Everton 2-0 Blackburn
WBA 1-3 Chelsea
West Ham 1-2 Aston Villa

The closest relegation battle I can remember got even more intriguing this afternoon, with wins for Wigan and Birmingham ensuring that each leapfrogged today’s opponents, Blackpool and Sunderland respectively. Chelsea secured a morale-boosting win in breaking Roy Hodgson’s unbeaten run as West Brom manager. Blackpool will perhaps worry the most tonight. Most fans will have seen today’s fixture, at home to the bottom club, as the best opportunity to chalk up a vital three points. West Ham failed to maximise the Tangerines’ pain though, with the Hammers failed to cling on for a draw against Villa (a result I thought they would secure when I previewed the weekend’s football). Everton beat Blackburn in the day’s other fixture, and Rovers now occupy 16th place, just three points ahead of bottom-placed Wolves – who have a game in hand. If Sunderland’s dire form continues, even they might not be safe.

Championship (selected):

Burnley 2-1 Swansea
Cardiff 3-0 Portsmouth
Crystal Palace 1-2 Scunthorpe
Preston 3-1 Sheffield United
Reading 3-1 Leicester

The bottom of the Championship may not be quite as exciting as the Premier League, but in recent weeks Preston North End – and to a lesser extent Scunthorpe – have spiced up the final few games. Scunthorpe’s win at Crystal Palace, who narrowly avoided relegation last season) means that both teams are heavily embroiled in the scrap to avoid the drop, with Preston just a point behind Scunny. North End have taken fourteen points from their last seven games, a record that would put them TOP had it been replicated since the start of the season. Their win over Sheffield United has all but condemned the Blades to playing League One football next year.

At the other end of the table, Reading, who have not lost in the league since 12th February, beat Leicester to record their eighth consecutive victory, propelling them ahead of Swansea, who slumped to a loss at Turf Moor against Burnley, despite taking a second half lead. The Swans’ south Wales rivals Cardiff regained the second automatic promotion place from Norwich, who beat Nottingham Forest last night. The Bluebirds now need just one point to guarantee a play-off place, but they will not want to enter that lottery, particularly after last year’s heart-breaking loss at Wembley to Blackpool. QPR, who did not play today, need just five points to secure promotion, and six to ensure their promotion.

Keep Wembley for the final

This weekend, fans, officials and players from four clubs will travel to London to watch their side compete in the FA Cup semi-finals. Bolton Wanderers, Manchester City, Manchester United and Stoke City will make the trip to Wembley - and will now also have to contend with likely delays on the M1.

I don't always agree with Sir Alex Ferguson, but on this he is absolutely right. It is ridiculous for these clubs to tramp down to the capital; Stoke, the nearest to London, is a 300-mile round trip. Of course, two of the teams will have to do it all again for the final.

And, as the FA fights to maintain the Cup's place in English football - dishing out fines to managers such as Blackpool's Ian Holloway for not fielding a full strength team - it is compliant in killing much of the romance of the tournament's latter stages. It goes against traditional footballing instincts for fans to be able to sing "Que sera, sera, we're going to Wem-ber-ley..." at a quarter-final.

What was wrong with the semi-finals being played at Anfield or Villa Park? The Wembley showcase final is less of an occasion if the teams have already been there. And if Manchester United beat City, and also get to the Champions' League final, their fans will be thoroughly sick of it!

FA Cup preview - Saturday 16th April

Manchester City v Manchester United, Wembley (5.15pm)

Manchester United's quest for a treble this season continued after the mid-week victory over Chelsea. United's season was perhaps typified by the 77th minute of the match. Didier Drogba scored for Chelsea, pulling them back to within a goal of qualifying for the semi-finals on away goals. In devastating fashion, though, United crushed Chelsea's hopes almost as soon as they had been raised by immediately going down the other end and restoring their two-goal cushion, thanks to a cool finish from Park Ji-sung.

Wayne Rooney, who had a masterful game on Tuesday, will miss out on tomorrow's game after his choice words at Upton Park a fortnight ago. Rooney, who has seemingly banished the problems that dogged his first half of the season, will be a huge loss for United. Fortunately for Sir Alex Ferguson, he can call on Javier Hernandez and Dimitar Berbatov; Manchester City, who will be without their injured talisman Carlos Tevez for a month, do not have the same calibre of reserves.

City have been something of a disappointment this campaign. Sitting in fourth, thirteen points adrift of their neighbours and with Tottenham breathing down their necks in pursuit of the final Champions' League place, they have, once again, flattered to deceive. Roberto Mancini is surely frustrated with the inconsistency of his side's performances, perhaps best demonstrated by their last two results. A thumping, confidence-filling victory over Sunderland was followed by a limp performance on Monday night at Anfield during a 3-0 defeat to Liverpool.

United will relish the prospect of securing three trophies this season, and, although becoming champions of Europe will be a tall order, they should add to City's long wait to add to their relatively empty trophy cabinet with a victory at the national stadium tomorrow. Even a United team generally accepted as much weaker than previous years has more class and strength in depth than City. Prediction: City 1-3 United

Premier League preview

Saturday 16th April, all kick-offs 3pm

Blackpool v Wigan, Bloomfield Road

By all accounts, Blackpool have been entertaining this season, and games involving the Tangerines have featured the highest average number of goals in the Premier League. Ian Holloway was unhappy with the referee’s performance in their last outing against Arsenal in a game that once again demonstrated that Blackpool have what it takes to survive. Wigan look in more dire straits, although a win here would put them above their hosts. I cannot see that happening, though, and despite something of an uptick in fortunes recently, the Latics have not won away in the league since Boxing Day. Prediction: Blackpool by 1

Everton v Blackburn, Goodison Park

A difficult start to the season for Everton has been put firmly behind them, and they have an outside chance of finishing ahead of their Merseyside rivals Liverpool. They put in a clinical first-half performance last time out at Wolves, and they should beat a Blackburn side that is still not safe. Rovers look as gritty as ever, and will push Everton hard, but the hosts will have too much class. Prediction: Everton by 2

West Brom v Chelsea, The Hawthorns

Roy Hodgson appears to have settled down at the Albion after his torrid spell at Liverpool. The Baggies are certainly better off for having him; they have not lost under his management, securing impressive points against Arsenal and at Stoke, and beating Hodgson’s previous club and, last weekend, Sunderland away. They are all but safe. Chelsea had any realistic chance of a trophy this season shattered by their Champions League defeat to Manchester United this week, and morale is bound to be low at Stamford Bridge, particularly with rumours emerging about Carlo Ancelotti’s future at the club. An interesting aside to whenever Chelsea play is whether Fernando Torres will finally break his duck and score for the Blues – see: http://www.hasfernandotorresscoredforchelsea.com/. Prediction: Score draw

West Ham v Aston Villa, Upton Park

The battle of the claret-and-blues might well be the (Premier League) game of the day. West Ham have had fluctuating fortunes over the course of the season. For the first half, they struggled at the foot of the league, with perhaps only their two good cup runs saving Avram Grant’s job. They have not won since a 3-0 triumph over Stoke on 5th March. Villa scored a priceless win on Sunday against Newcastle, although were not overly impressive, and fans are far from 100 per cent behind manager Gerard Houllier. They have talent in every department, but Upton Park is not an easy place to pick up maximum points. Prediction: Score draw

Birmingham v Sunderland, St Andrews

Birmingham are yet another club looking nervously over their shoulders in the closest relegation battle in years. St Andrews is another relative fortress at the wrong end of the table, and Sunderland are almost the ideal team to come up against for the Blues, with the Black Cats themselves in a dreadful run of form. Since the beginning of February, Steve Bruce’s men have scored seven goals and picked up just one point – at the Emirates – out of a possible 24. They probably have enough points to avoid being sucked into a relegation fight, but this fixture should give the hosts a vital three points. Prediction: Birmingham by 1

Christchurch disaster puts a dampener on World Cup legacy

It was with sadness a couple of weeks ago that I read that Christchurch’s 44,000-seater AMI Stadium (or ‘Stadium Christchurch’ as it is blandly known for Rugby World Cup sponsorship reasons) will not be able to host any of this autumn’s (southern spring’s) tournament.

I realise, of course, that there were far greater tragedies that resulted from the earthquake that struck the city in February. I have friends who live in Christchurch, and while they were thankfully unharmed, the scenes of devastation were made all the more real. There was almost an unprecedented loss of life for New Zealand.

Considering all that, it may seem trivial to comment on World Cup stadia. However, it would have been a great demonstration that Christchurch was back on its feet and reopen for business had the stadium (right) been made ready for the tournament. As it is, the city will now largely miss out on the expected national windfall of US$545 million. But I am no structural engineer; I of course submit to their assessments.

Stadiums in Dunedin and Auckland will take some of Christchurch’s games; both are decent arenas, although Auckland is now lined up to host two quarter-finals, both semi-finals, the third-place play-off and the final itself. It puts complaints about using Wembley for the FA Cup semis into some perspective.

The other grounds hosting relocated games are no great shakes. They were all due to host games anyway, but more minor ones than they will now bear witness to. Rugby Park, Invercargill (below), with a capacity of just 17,000, will now play host to the Scotland-Georgia fixture, which has been pushed out of Dunedin to make way for an England game (the Scots cannot be too impressed by that). Trafalgar Park in Nelson, another tiny ground by international standards with room for just 16,000 spectators, will take a greater role, as will North Harbour Stadium in Albany, Greater Auckland. Albany’s stadium, which holds 25,000, has one fantastic stand; unfortunately, that is pretty much its only stand.

These three grounds will be more than happy to step into the vacuum caused by the Christchurch disaster, and it is a great opportunity both for the development of the regional economies and to be put beamed into living rooms and bars across the world. Unfortunately, the boost received by Invercargill, Nelson and North Harbour is predicated on the rather depressing sight of a great stadium, which I was lucky enough to watch a Super 14 match at in 2008, lying empty. It is another blow to Christchurch and its people. Hopefully the All Blacks can give them something to cheer.

Canadian General Election, 2 May 2011

On 2 May, Canada will have yet another general election, its fourth in just seven years. Conservative leader Stephen Harper has been Prime Minister since 2006, but has always fallen short of winning a majority, something that has led to the relative instability of politics in Ottawa.

Part of the problem is the existence of one of the strongest regionalist parties in the world – the Bloc Québécois, which desires independence for Quebec. That the party perennially wins around two thirds of the province’s ridings, or approximately fifty seats (in a Parliament of 308) makes it extremely difficult for the national parties – the Conservatives, the Liberals and the New Democrats (NDP) – to secure a majority. With 154 seats required for an overall majority, that hurdle is raised that much higher by the BQ’s consistent success. The national parties, in other words, have to win around 60 per cent of the seats not captured by the BQ.

In 2008, Harper’s Tories nevertheless did come relatively close to securing that elusive majority, winning 143 seats. This time, they may finally achieve it. Polls show them leading the Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals by eight percentage points, but the Liberals appear to be closing the gap.

This seems an election to watch, albeit with the most likely result at this stage being yet another minority government for Harper. Nevertheless, I will update the blog as the election campaign develops.


2008 results:

VOTE SHARE:
Conservative 38%
Liberal 26%
Bloc Québécois 10%
New Democrats 18%
Others 8%


SEATS:
Conservative 143
Liberal 77
Bloc Québécois 49
New Democrats 37
Others 2

AV broadcasts – which will resonate?

Political election broadcasts are usually dry affairs. This is perhaps no great surprise; parties have to attempt to condense into a few minutes the highlights of their manifesto as well as compelling reasons why the other lot should not be rewarded with your vote. It was, therefore, a refreshing change – purely from a point of view which values good television entertainment – to have finally caught up with the two Alternative Vote referendum broadcasts (link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13047896).

The NO to AV broadcast was shown first, last Monday evening. Attempting to illustrate what the campaign sees as the main drawbacks of AV, it featured three separate skits. Firstly, viewers saw the return of the fictional MP Alan B’Stard (apparently having abandoned the Conservative Party, which he was portrayed as a member of in the BBC political sitcom of 1980s and 1990s). Promising a raft of populist but unaffordable measures, B’Stard reveals that AV, which the film suggests leads to perennial and inevitable coalition governments, has given him a supposedly valid excuse for abandoning his promises.

The NO campaign has used Nick Clegg’s unpopularity as a key campaign theme, and the attacks on the Liberal Democrat leader are thinly-veiled in this broadcast. B’Stard emphasises his pledge to abolish all tuition fees, echoing a similar promise in the Lib Dem manifesto. Viewers will surely have made the link that NO wanted them to: Clegg broke his promise because parliamentary arithmetic forced him into a coalition. AV would lead to perennial coalition government, and increasingly hollow manifesto commitments.

B’Stard’s cameo role is followed by a horse race, in which the third place horse, ‘Lib Dem’, is awarded the winner’s trophy. Leaving aside the veracity of the argument (and the analogy is a false one), the sketch is effective at portraying what it claims is the inherent unfairness of an electoral system in which most (initial) votes do not necessarily a winner make.

Finally, perhaps the most compelling section of the broadcast. A teacher attempts to explain AV to a class of pupils, who are flummoxed by her explanation despite her reading from a chunky ‘AV manual’. Again, the teacher’s description of the workings of the Alternative Vote are not wholly accurate, but the concept of second- and third- (etc) preference votes being used surely confuses many voters. This is perhaps the most inherent weakness of AV, and although it is not, in fact, as complex as it is purported to be in the broadcast, there is a successful emphasis placed on the perceived complexity of the system.

By contrast to the relatively professional production of the NO broadcast, the broadcast, on Tuesday, by the ‘YES! to fairer votes’ campaign was a turgid affair. It featured a number of shouty constituents cornering their MPs, putting them on the spot by implying that AV encourages them to work harder.

Certainly, there are some merits to this argument. Candidates, under AV, would have to appeal to a broader range of voters than just their core support. Perhaps, too, there would be fewer MPs who felt they could take the risk of cheating on their expenses. Many members of Parliament, however, resent the insinuation that they do not work hard enough, and have said as much in response to the broadcast.

However, such a response perhaps plays into the hands of the YES campaign, allowing them to play their strongest card – that the current system of First Past the Post is a politicians’ wheeze. Again, this is not necessarily a credible argument, especially considering that most parties actually support a YES vote. However, the prevailing anti-politician mood remains strong, and if the YES campaign can be successfully portrayed as tapping this mood, it may tip the balance in favour of change.

Purely as television features, NO was clearly a superior production. Its demonstration of AV’s supposed complexity will resonate with voters, but perhaps only those who have begun to consider the referendum question, which, I daresay, is not a high proportion of the electorate. If YES can associate a NO vote with an implicit blind eye to political misdemeanours, however, it may trump any advantage that the NO transmission accrued. It is rather difficult to assess the potential impact of two overtly negative broadcasts.

Hyper-injunctions threaten the liberty we should hold dear

At the risk of appearing to display a naive and fundamental misunderstanding of what drives the tabloid press, my initial reaction to the story leading most of today’s red-tops was simply “why print a story missing crucial information?”

I am aware, of course, that the incident in question contains perhaps the perfect ingredients for these publications. “World famous actor in sex romps with Rooney’s vice girl” splashes the Daily Express; “Roo hooker’s romps with a married actor” reveals the Daily Mirror; the Sun, meanwhile, leads with the relatively restrained “Rooney hooker bedded married actor”.

The headlines are intriguing, and naturally invite the reader to further investigate the story. Buy this newspaper, the front page implores, and your insatiable thirst for celebrity gossip will be at least temporarily quenched.

Except, of course, that the headlines tell as much of the story as anyone is allowed to know. The actor involved in this case is protected by an injunction that prevents the press from revealing his identity, in turn denying readers the juicy details of the “scandal”.

Not being particularly interested in such celebrity gossip (although rather perversely perhaps, I did eagerly await last season’s encounter between Manchester City and Chelsea, where the former’s Wayne Bridge came up against John Terry, who had been revealed as having “bedded” Bridge’s ex-partner), I cannot get too wound up the injunction. Indeed, I was more drawn to the adjacent front-page story in the Express, another hyperbolic rant about the European Union.

The increased frequency of such injunctions has become ever more evident. More disturbingly still, however, were the recent revelations of far more powerful court gagging orders. Known as hyper-injunctions, they are so far-reaching that they may even prevent members of the public from speaking to their MPs about the issues to which they refer.

Fortunately for our democracy, parliamentary privilege, which prevents MPs speaking in the House of Commons from being taken to court for what they say there, has been invoked to get around these scandalous measures.

Liberal Democrat MP John Hemming should thus be commended for bringing one such issue into the public domain. The High Court passed an order five years ago, Hemming revealed, in which the full weight of legal power was used to close down every route that a constituent could potentially take in order to broadcast his claims.

And what is this issue, one that apparently justifies unelected judges from deciding that its very existence should not be revealed? It concerns the paint used on ships, which, it is alleged, reacts with sea water to produce toxic by-products.

Does this really justify the full weight of the English legal system being enacted to deny an individual a platform upon which to detail his accusation? Is it morally acceptable for him or her not even to be able to discuss the matter with “members of Parliament, journalists and lawyers”, as the High Court order makes plain?

Of course not. Hyper-injunctions represent a new threat to the values of liberty that we should hold dear as a nation. We cannot, surely, tolerate a society in which a citizen is denied the right even to speak to his or her elected representative. It is almost laughable that in this case the individual was even handed a two-week suspended jail sentence merely for consulting a lawyer about whether or not to bring the case to court.

Perhaps the most dangerous facet of this affair is the fact that the judge’s orders prevent any chance of appealing the verdict. There is literally no authority to which the recipient of the injunction can legally turn, and only the constitutional quirk of parliamentary privilege has allowed the sorry episode to become a matter of public knowledge.

It is a good thing that it has. This is a matter that puts no less than a basic right – that of free speech – at risk, and represents, too, a threat to the elected democratic system in which we place our trust. A worrying precedent has been set, one that is overwhelmingly more disquieting than not being able to identify the latest cheating celebrity.