Rugby World Cup: Pool D preview

Reigning World Champions they might be, but South Africa don’t enter this tournament in brilliant form. The Springboks finished bottom of the Tri Nations, and whilst they did not always field their strongest team, results such as the 14-9 home defeat to Australia caused much disquiet amongst supporters.

The team is littered with star quality, from prop Tendai ‘the Beast’ Mtawarira to combative fullback Frans Steyn. In JP Pietersen and Bryan Habana, they have probably the fastest wingers in the world, even if they are not quite on the same level as they were two or three years ago. It is hard to see any real weaknesses in the South African team, although perhaps a certain staleness will count against them. They struggled against Tonga in the group stage in 2007, but will easily qualify from this group which features the other two Pacific island nations.

Wales, however, will be quietly confident that they can upset the odds and triumph over the Springboks in both sides’ opening encounter in Wellington. Winning two of their three warm-up games will have done the Welsh a world of good. The Shaun Edwards-led defence was particularly impressive in the second of the two games against England, a 19-9 win in Cardiff in which, incredibly, Wales made 150 tackles and denied England a try despite their opponents making ten visits to Wales’ 22.

Wales pose a particular threat out wide, but they will know better than anyone that attacking flair is not necessarily a recipe for success, as was proved by their thrilling 38-34 defeat to Fiji in the group stage in 2007. The Welsh also have a poor record against Samoa in World Cups, losing in both 1991 and 1999 – and both of those matches took place in Cardiff.

Samoa, however, are weaker than they have been in the past, and are unlikely to pose the same kind of threat that they did to Wales in the 1990s as well as England in the 2003 tournament, when they ran the eventual champions uncomfortably close. They will be particularly reliant on Alesana Tuilagi, but will probably end up losing out to Fiji in the battle to finish third and qualify automatically for the 2015 World Cup.

Fiji will relish taking on Wales again; as well as the 2007 victory, the south-sea island nation upset the odds in the two sides’ last meeting at the Millennium Stadium ten months ago when they snatched a 16-16 draw. That was, admittedly, a much poorer Welsh team than the one they will face Down Under, but it was a demonstration that Pool D is certainly the so-called ‘Group of Death’, and Fiji will fancy their chances of grabbing second place – although you would expect Wales to have learnt their lesson. Fiji will bring the traditional fireworks that stand their sevens team in such good stead, but will find the quarterfinals a step too far this time around.

Namibia are the real whipping boys of Pool D. Their campaign in 2003 was marked by suffering the biggest defeat (in terms of margin of victory) in tournament history against hosts Australia in Perth – by 142 points to nil. They suffered four convincing losses last time around, too, but did put up slightly more of a fight against Ireland. Coach Johan Diergaardt has vowed that this is a much better Namibian side, and in Saracens flanker Jacques Burger they have a player of undoubted star quality. Even so, four heavy defeats surely beckon.

Predictions:

Fiji 49-17 Namibia
South Africa 27-19 Wales
Samoa 55-6 Namibia
South Africa 38-13 Fiji
Wales 29-16 Samoa
South Africa 76-3 Namibia
Wales 36-14 Namibia
South Africa 41-11 Samoa
Wales 32-20 Fiji

Rugby World Cup: Pool C preview

If current form is an accurate guide, Australia should have no trouble in qualifying from this group, most likely as winners. The Wallabies were impressive in the Tri Nations finale, upsetting the odds to defeat New Zealand 25-20 in Brisbane. They are widely seen as most likely to stop the All Blacks triumphing at the World Cup, and I have come to see them as outright favourites.

In Quade Cooper, James O’Connor (whose place in the starting XV is in doubt after a disciplinary issue), Digby Ioane and Kurtley Beale they may stake a claim to having the strongest back line in world rugby, although the highly skilled Cooper is nevertheless weak defensively and has a tendency to get rattled. It is not inconceivable that his attempts to be too clever could backfire and cost his team dear. Scrum half Will Genia, too, is arguably the best in the world in his position at present.

The Australian forwards are themselves hardly an Achilles heel. Captain James Horwill and Radike Samo are imposing presences; that said, the Wallabies will seek to exploit their advantage out wide. Their principal challenge in the group stage will be Ireland, whose team, by contrast, is aging.

This will almost certainly be the final chance for players such as Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy to make an impact on the international stage, although there are plenty of young – yet experienced – backs in the Irish stage, including Jonathan Sexton and Tommy Bowe. Ireland were disappointing in their warm-up matches, losing all four. They performed badly at the last World Cup, too, and will be desperate to make amends, but although it would be a surprise if they failed to qualify from the pool, it is difficult to see them getting further than the quarterfinals.

Italy have a poor record in World Cups, never having qualified for the knockout phases. Flashes of quality in the Six Nations have been all too rare, although a first win over France in the tournament earlier in 2011 gave cause for much celebration amongst supporters of the Azzurri. Number Eight Sergio Parisse is one of the world’s elite players, but along with other stars such as fellow forwards Andrea Lo Cicero and Martin Castrogiovanni, he cannot, of course, carry the rest of the team. Even so, the perennial third seeds will see Ireland as a target, and will pull out all the stops finally to reach the quarterfinals – and on their day, they are certainly capable of doing so.

The United States and Russia met in the Bowl Final of this summer’s Churchill Cup, where they played out a thrilling (if relatively defensively inept) encounter in which the American Eagles triumphed 32-25. There was plenty of attacking rugby – and US winger Takudzwa Ngwenya is still remembered fondly in the rugby world for burning South Africa’s Bryan Habana in the 2007 World Cup to score a famous try. That score had been set up by another key man for the Eagles, wild-haired flanker and captain Todd Clever.

Russia will be keen to make amends for that defeat in this, their first World Cup tournament. Coached by former Welsh captain Kingsley Jones, the Bears will be forced to perform the traditional minnows’ role of retaining respectability against the bigger sides. Being a physical side should help them in this regard, and neither Ireland nor Italy are likely to be able to run riot against them. This tournament, though, will be little more than a learning process for them.

Predictions:

Australia 56-18 Italy
Ireland 32-13 USA
Russia 20-33 USA
Australia 27-16 Ireland
Italy 45-10 Russia
Australia 61-9 USA
Ireland 34-6 Russia
Italy 32-19 USA
Australia 59-3 Russia
Ireland 24-28 Italy

Rugby World Cup: Pool B preview

In many ways Pool B is the most intriguing of the group stage. England and Scotland will count themselves fortunate to have drawn Argentina, top Pool B seeds thanks to their ranking as the world’s fourth best team when the World Cup draw was made two years ago.

The intervening period has seen the Pumas slip below both the principal opposition nations in this group to ninth (with England fifth and Scotland seventh). The rankings reflect the fact that Argentina, who will join the Tri Nations next season, are a shadow of their 2007 team, which defeated hosts France twice to claim an impressive third-place finish.

Even so, the South Americans will be hopeful of progressing to the quarterfinals, most likely at the expense of Scotland – but a victory over England instead or as well is far from inconceivable. The recent warm-up matches showcased two very different England teams; against Wales (in Cardiff, and the second half at Twickenham), they looked poor. Nevertheless, flashes of excellence in the London encounter with the Welsh, as well as a satisfying avenging of their Six Nations loss in Dublin, indicated that an English side that can click will remain a distinct threat.

Manu Tuilagi, who bagged two tries in those warm-ups, is an exciting option that could solve Martin Johnson’s headache in the centre, although opponents will seek to exploit his distinct lack of international experience. Johnson will have been pleased with Jonny Wilkinson performances in those fixtures, but with the perennial threats of Chris Ashton and Ben Foden, he will be less reliant on Wilkinson’s left boot than when he lifted the Webb Ellis trophy himself in 2003.

Scotland have undergone a mini-resurgence themselves in recent years, although they are far from being a team that will automatically strike fear into the hearts of other top tier sides. Their warm-up matches consisted of a narrow win over Ireland in a dire contest watched by a more than half-empty Murrayfield. Considered as the second-worst team in the Six Nations for much of the previous decade, Scotland impressed in 2010, when they felt that they could have secured the Triple Crown. They followed this with a victory over World Champions South Africa at Murrayfield, but apparently let slip any gain in their disappointing Six Nations campaign earlier this year. Their forwards, particularly Kelly Brown, John Barclay and captain Alastair Kellock, remain formidable, but for too long their backs – with the exception of the pace of Max Evans – have remained relatively impotent.

The other two sides in the Pool, Romania and Georgia are, or course, very much weaker. Romania were a force in the early 1990s, a time which even featured a win in France against the national team. They have qualified for every World Cup, and will be looking to continue their record of winning one match at each tournament since 1995; however, they might find it tough against the Georgians, and the Oaks are certainly not helped by the withdrawal of winger Catalin Fercu, who refused to travel to New Zealand on account of his fear of flying.

Georgian rugby has been rising steadily in recent years. World Cup debutants in 2007, they came extremely close to providing what might have been the biggest shock in international rugby history when they were pipped 14-10 by Ireland; the so-called minnows failed to capitalise on late pressure in the encounter (and had a ‘try’ disallowed by the television match official), which they were leading after 55 minutes. England, Scotland and Argentina will be aware of Georgia’s potential, and should see them off, but the Lelos are sure to put up a tough, physical battle and will make life difficult for the more established nations, and I would expect Georgia to triumph over Romania.

Predictions:

Scotland 35-10 Romania
Argentina 18-27 England
Scotland 31-14 Georgia
Argentina 33-6 Romania
England 44-18 Georgia
England 67-11 Romania
Argentina 18-20 Scotland
Georgia 27-19 Romania
England 28-17 Scotland
Argentina 22-13 Georgia

Rugby World Cup: Pool A preview

Favourites at nearly every World Cup since they won the inaugural tournament in 1987, also on home soil, New Zealand will be desperate to rid themselves of their ‘chokers’ tag, and there is no better opportunity than now. The All Blacks approached the tournament in a rich vein of form, thrashing South Africa and comfortably seeing off Australia in the opening encounters of this season’s Tri Nations competition. However, a defeat to the Springboks in Port Elizabeth – albeit in a match in which New Zealand fielded a reserve line-up – allowed Australia the chance, which they duly took, to avenge their earlier defeat against the All Blacks.

That defeat to the Wallabies has made the New Zealand public even more nervous than they already were, and, despite the obvious denials, is likely to have a similar effect on the team. Group rivals France are something of a bogey team for the hosts, having knocked them out of the 1999 and 2007 tournaments in two of the most famous matches in World Cup history. This group, more than any other, has two teams of a far higher quality than the other three, Tonga, Japan and Canada.

Both the All Blacks and the French would be extremely upset not to beat each of those teams by at least twenty points, and there is very little scope for an upset. New Zealand should defeat France at Auckland’s Eden Park, although France will be hopeful that they can take advantage of the pressure that the hosts are under. To do so they must close down the All Blacks’ backs, primarily Zac Guildford, Cory Jane and . New Zealand will also seek to dominate up front, but the French forwards are no pushovers themselves, and Marc Lievremont’s men must retain their discipline in order to cause an upset. That, though, is by no means out of the question; with both teams having a reputation for free-flowing rugby, the fixture, on 24 September, is likely to be one of the highlights of the group stage.

Japan were disappointed not to be chosen as hosts of this tournament – although they have since been awarded the 2019 event – and they will want to make a strong showing in order to build-up their support over the course of the next eight years. They will be acutely aware that sixteen years ago, the last time they shared a group with New Zealand they conceded the most points in a World Cup match ever, losing to the All Blacks by 145 points to seventeen. They will avoid a similar scoreline this year, but they will focus their attention on attempting to defeat Canada and Tonga. The Cherry Blossoms, under coach John Kirwan, will be filled with confidence after having won the Pacific Nations Cup earlier this year, beating Tonga and Fiji.

Canada, fresh from their own second place finish at this year’s Churchill Cup, in which they beat Italy A (who went on to defeat Tonga in the Plate final) and Russia, were also in Japan’s group in 2007. That meeting resulted in a 12-12 draw, in a thrilling contest that was nevertheless short of high-class rugby. The three fixtures between the lesser teams in Pool A will be worthy contests, and each team will approach them with the hope, or even expectation, of winning.

Predictions:

New Zealand 71-8 Tonga
France 62-13 Japan
Tonga 25-22 Canada
New Zealand 78-10 Japan
France 48-9 Canada
Tonga 24-16 Japan
New Zealand 29-19 France
Canada 23-29 Japan
France 55-6 Tonga
New Zealand 61-16 Canada

Premier League Preview Part Three: Relegation Candidates

Last season, Wolverhampton Wanderers escaped the drop by a single point; with just three minutes left of the season, a Stephen Hunt goal clawed Mick McCarthy’s men out of danger by virtue of goals scored at the expense of Birmingham City (though a later goal conceded by the Blues gave Wolves their final one point cushion). This campaign, Wolves have been bolstered by the acquisitions of Jamie O’Hara and the solid Roger Johnson, and if they can both build on a number of impressive results that they achieved last time out (beating all of the top three at Molineux as well as Liverpool at Anfield) and eliminate the errors that cost them a more comfortable league position, they should be able to wrap up survival before the final day.

Wigan Athletic, another club that at various stages of last season looked prime candidates to be playing Championship football, but engineered a spectacular escape from that fate in the dying weeks of May, taking eight points from their final four games, and six from their last two. Roberto Martinez relied mainly on players such as Ali Al-Habsi, Charles N’Zogbia and Hugo Rodallega, but with N’Zogbia having left the DW Stadium, Martinez will be short of a key playmaker. In James McCarthy, they have arguably one of the best young talents in the league, but a general lack of class might make this an even tougher season than last term.

One of the bigger transfers in the league this season was Manchester United’s purchase of young Blackburn Rovers centre back Phil Jones for £16.5m. A price that Rovers could hardly have turned down, it has seemed to some that the club has cashed in the player while it still retained the bargaining position of a Premier League place, and, indeed, Blackburn are among the favourites for the drop this term. To date, their only signing of note has been Dundee United’s exciting striker David Goodwillie, but whether his addition will be enough to rejuvenate a time that looked prime Championship stock last season is open to debate.

Bolton Wanderers, a relatively unfashionable – but often effective – club, will be looking to consolidate last season’s lower mid-table finish, and looking to break into the top ten. They have lost some key players from the last campaign – Johan Elmander and Matty Taylor have both left while Daniel Sturridge has returned to Chelsea after his loan spell at the Reebok Stadium. In addition, South Korean winger Lee Chung-yong, among the most impressive performers for the Trotters over the past few months, will miss nearly the whole campaign after breaking his leg in pre-season. Owen Coyle remains a highly rated manager, but has barely added to his squad over the summer. This could prove to be a difficult season for Bolton, and it would be no great surprise to see them dragged down as far as the relegation mix.

Swansea City, last year labelled by some the ‘Barcelona of the Championship’, make far more passes on average each game than any other team in England's top four divisions. Under the guidance of Brendan Rodgers, they finished third in the second tier last year, and secured promotion via the play-offs – sealed with a thrilling 4-2 victory over Reading at Wembley. As with most Premier League novices, they are among the favourites to go straight back down, but an excellent team spirit at the Liberty Stadium is complemented by the signing of last season’s top scorer in the Championship, Watford striker Danny Graham. It will be a tough season for the first Welsh team to reach the Premier League, but as Hull and Blackpool have proved in recent seasons, albeit before both teams faded, smaller teams do have the element of surprise.

Queen’s Park Rangers, who romped to the Championship title last season, are relishing their return to the Premier League for the first time since their relegation in 1996. They have one of the second tier’s top performers in 2010-11, Adel Taarabt, but question marks remain as to how he will fare in the more physical top flight. However, Neil Warnock – whose position as manager at Loftus Road has looked somewhat precarious during the off-season – has bought astutely over the summer, signing Cardiff striker Jay Bothroyd, West Ham duo Danny Gabbidon and Keiron Dyer along with Blackpool hitman DJ Campbell. QPR fans would be content with survival, and Rangers’ squad are surely capable of achieving that. Even so, with the majority of the players Premier League novices, Warnock must hope that his squad can quickly adapt to the division.

In August 2009, two Norwich City fans made headlines after running onto the field, tearing up their season tickets during a 1-7 opening day defeat to lowly Colchester United. Two years – and two promotions – later, the Canaries have made that pair look somewhat sheepish, as they prepare to welcome Premier League football back to Carrow Road. Manager Paul Lambert is treated as something of a hero in Norfolk, but he will be more than aware of the challenges that lie ahead for his side. His players are not what might be regarded as typical top flight players – indeed, only a handful have played in the division before. Norwich will be reliant on striker and captain Grant Holt, who was as prolific last year as he was in League One the previous season. His form will be crucial to Norwich’s success – but even if he is relatively successful, it is difficult to see anything but a relegation struggle for his side.

Relegation prediction:

Blackburn Rovers
Norwich City
Wigan Athletic

Premier League Preview Part Two: Mid-table

In a manner reminiscent of Phil Jones’ departure from Blackburn, Sunderland sold their England midfielder Jordan Henderson to Liverpool for £20m; unlike Steve Kean at Rovers, however, Steve Bruce has not been shy of spending the revenue. The Black Cats have added no fewer than nine players to their squad, including Manchester United defenders Wes Brown and John O’Shea, Birmingham duo Sebastian Larsson and Craig Gardener and also fought off competition to sign Ipswich’s highly-rated midfielder Connor Wickham. Bruce must hope that the squad gels quickly and easily, but he would surely be disappointed if his side did not improve on last season’s 10th place.

Recent weeks have been another episode in the perennial Newcastle United farce. With Joey Barton threatening to follow Jose Enrique and Kevin Nolan out of St James’ Park, many Toon fans expect a frustrating season ahead. With a relatively impotent strike force of Shola Ameobi and new signing Demba Ba, manager Alan Pardew has been urged by fans to invest more of the £35m received for Andy Carroll in January. Whether or not owner Mike Ashley permits this is a matter of debate, and while Newcastle have added some (Francophone) midfielders – Sylvain Marveaux, Gabriel Obertan, Mehdi Abeid and the impressive-looking Yohan Cabaye – to their squad, they still desperately require another striker. It might be a difficult season, but Newcastle should still have too much quality, including Hatem Ben Arfa and new captain Fabricio Coloccini, to return so soon to the second tier.

West Bromwich Albion, who clawed back a three-goal deficit against Newcastle on the last day of last season to leapfrog the Magpies into 11th place, had a season of two halves. After Roberto Di Matteo was sacked as manager in February – following a run of seven defeats in nine matches – Roy Hodgson presided over a rise in fortunes and the table for the Baggies. With Peter Odemwingie on prolific goalscoring form last year – and this season joined up front by record signing Shane Long – Hodgson will be hopeful that he and other key players, including midfielders Somen Tchoyi and Chris Brunt, will be able to build on that mid-table finish. It would be a surprise if they fail to do so.

Stoke City are commonly regarded as one of the least glamourous clubs in the top division, but fans – reputedly among the loudest in the country – will not care. Their three seasons in the Premier League have seen Tony Pulis’ side finish 12th, 11th and 13th, and there is few reasons to believe the Potters cannot engineer another safe mid-table spot this time around. Stoke’s focus last season was on the FA Cup, in which they reached the final before capitulating to Manchester City. Famous for the long throws-in of Rory Delap, Stoke have talent throughout the team, particularly in imposing centre back Robert Huth, winger Matthew Etherington and triggerman Kenwyne Jones. Matthew Upson is a solid signing, too, but Stoke will have to be wary of the potential effects of their Europa League campaign on their domestic fortunes.

Like Stoke, Fulham have already kicked off their Europa League campaign – indeed, they did so before the end of July. Last time out in the Premier League, under Mark Hughes, they were the draw specialists, finishing a satisfactory 8th. The summer, however, has seen Hughes being replaced with former Tottenham manager Martin Jol, and although the new boss is yet to bring any true blockbuster signings to Craven Cottage, he will be hopeful that a team that boasts undoubted defensive talents – including goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer and defenders Brede Hangeland, Chris Baird and former Liverpool left back John Arne Riise, who joined this summer from Serie A outfit Roma – will be able to secure another top-half finish. It would be a surprise if the well-regarded Jol were to fail in that task.

For Jol’s former club, the 2011-12 season would have to be a remarkable one to eclipse the adventure of last term. Tottenham Hotspur won their Champions League group in their first outing in Europe’s premier club tournament, and then knocked out AC Milan before finally succumbing to Real Madrid in the quarter finals. The continental adventure might have distracted Spurs, who this season will revert back to the Europa League. With Liverpool’s apparently rising fortunes, Spurs will struggle even to retain last season’s fifth spot. Goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes, a fantastic shot-stopper but subject to frequent lapses of concentration, may be usurped by the signing of Aston Villa’s Brad Friedel, but this season is likely to be something of a letdown after the heights of the previous two.

The Aston Villa club hierarchy were embroiled in much controversy at the start of the summer, upsetting many of their fans by appointing Alex McLeish as manager – despite not only arriving from archrivals Birmingham City, but also having got them relegated. He has brought in a couple of useful players, however, namely goalkeeper Shay Given and midfielder Charles N’Zogbia. In England striker Darren Bent, they have one of the top forwards in the league, but his task will be made more difficult by the loss of wingers Stewart Downing and Ashley Young to Liverpool and Manchester United respectively. In order to build on last season’s ninth place finish, McLeish will hope that young players such as Marc Albrighton, Ciaran Clark and Nathan Delfouneso can build on the promise they showed last year.

Everton have had a remarkably quiet off-season. A very satisfactory seventh place finish last time was achieved despite having very few options for the position of striker; indeed, Tim Cahill, with nine goals, was the top league goal-scorer for the Toffees. Despite this lack of strikers, however, Everton have a number of high quality players that were crucial to last season’s relative success, particularly left-back Leighton Baines, centre back (and apparent Arsenal target) Phil Jagielka, the freekick master Mikel Arteta as well as Australian international Cahill. Along with the likes of the Irish youngster Seamus Coleman, Everton can become an established top-half side, even in spite of the vacuum up front.

Premier League Preview Part One: The Title Contenders

The first week or two of August is traditionally time for widespread optimism amongst football fans. With the season a matter of days away, supporters believe that this is ‘their year’ for success, and with the addition of high-profile signings and the prospect of more to come, there is an almost tangible air of excitement.

For the English football powerhouses, such positivity is easy to come by. Last season’s champions Manchester United, who took the title – in the end relatively comfortably – despite being commonly regarded as something of a shadow of the team of a few seasons ago, have bolstered the squad with the additions of goalkeeper David de Gea, centre-back Phil Jones and winger Ashley Young. De Gea and Jones are just 20 and 19 years of age respectively, and their signings underline Sir Alex Ferguson’s desire to build his squad for long-term success. With last season’s breakthrough of Javier Hernandez – to the extent that he kept joint top goal-scorer Dimitar Berbatov on the bench towards the end of the season – as well as a host of other young players such as Chris Smalling, these remain exciting times for United fans (not that that can apply more particularly to this off-season than any other at Old Trafford). Dutch star Wesley Sneijder has proved elusive to United so far, but his addition remains on the radar, and would make the defence of the league title that much easier.

Chelsea have not added any players, but in appointing Andre Villas-Boas as their new manager created one of the first talking points of the summer. Villas-Boas, echoing his compatriot Jose Mourinho in arriving at Stamford Bridge from FC Porto and with the experience of having worked under Sir Bobby Robson, is the youngest manager in the Premier League at just 33. He will be under immediate pressure – although presumably less intense than that felt by his predecessor Carlo Ancelotti – to win trophies, but the lack of arrivals gives Villas-Boas a hard task in freshening up a team that, at times, looked stale and even predictable last season. Fernando Torres, after his frustrating goalless spell following his move from Liverpool, will be keen to justify his £50m price tag. Finally scoring at the end of last season will have eased the tension greatly, and it is not hard to see this being a relatively fruitful season for the Spaniard.

Torres’ quest for the golden boot, however, will be made all the more difficult by Manchester City’s signing of Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero, in probably the biggest transfer of the summer. City, who will grace the Champions League group stage this year, have been – admittedly, with some justification – accused of attempting to buy success. But whilst it is true that City have spent even more money than Chelsea since Roman Abramovich’s takeover, their signings have had much less of an effect, and a large transfer fee paid by the club is far from a guarantor of future productivity. The £27m paid for Edin Dzeko is yet to be justified; the £24m for Mario Balotelli has been little more than a waste. Yaya Toure, though, performed superbly last season, and this is no time to write Manchester City off, for as soon as the squad gels – the most significant missing ingredient over the last two seasons – success will surely follow. It is not difficult to envisage a Manchester double act atop the league by the end of May 2012.

Arsenal, by contrast, have avoided splashing out. The debacle towards the end of last season, when they took just 12 points from their last 11 league matches and were knocked out of three cups in less than a fortnight has led to a level of dissatisfaction with Arsene Wenger that is probably the most intense of his time in North London. The perennial goalkeeper problem continues to dog Arsenal, though Wojciech Szczeny appears to be a marked improvement on the likes of Manuel Alminua and Lucasz Fabianski. Two of the club’s top midfielders, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas, have not guaranteed their return to the Emirates Stadium, and it would be a terrible blow to Arsenal’s fortunes if they cannot retain at least one of the two.

Wenger deserves praise for his thrift, but the patience of Gunners fans is wearing extremely thin, and if no trophy is forthcoming this season it will surely prove to be his last at the club. As always, it would be foolish to dismiss the Arsenal challenge completely, but their strength in depth is not enough to win the league. To extend his time with the Gunners, Wenger will probably have to overcome his traditional hostility to the League and FA Cups.

Arsenal’s problems, however, looked set to be overshadowed for much of last season by those at Anfield. As late as January this year, thousands of Facebook users cheekily anticipated a spontaneous party to celebrate what was apparently unthinkable – the relegation of Liverpool from the Premier League. Everton’s 2-0 derby victory put Liverpool into 19th place, and the club had barely recovered by the time manager Roy Hodgson left his post after just seven months in charge. Under new boss, and Reds legend, Kenny Dalglish, the side’s fortunes changed, and they finished sixth, only just missing out on European qualification. This season, with one of the top strike partnerships in the league, Liverpool will aim to break back into the top four. Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll, both of whom joined in January, were the first fruits of last season’s takeover by the American Fenway Sports Group.

There has been plenty of transfer activity this summer, too. Dalglish has acquired Stewart Downing, Jordan Henderson and Charlie Adam, and is thus hardly short of midfielders. Although questions have been asked about the cost of Dalglish’s signings – Carroll, Downing and Henderson cost a combined £75m – if the Reds can build on the relative success of the second half of last season, a top-three finish is not inconceivable. Indeed, under Dalglish Liverpool triumphed over both Manchester teams and Chelsea, and snatched a dramatic draw at Arsenal. Liverpool’s problem has been their consistency against lesser teams, but it would be no great surprise if, in May 2012, Liverpool have achieved a Champions League spot – and have added to the Anfield trophy cabinet.

This article was originally published at The Vibe

Newcastle United v Manchester United, St James' Park

Everytime Sir Alex comes to Tyneside, he will remember the day when his side were humiliated 5-0, with Phillipe Albert's glorious chipped fifth goal still one of my favourites of all time, leaving aside any club allegiance.

That scoreline is less likely this evening, with the red United looking to extend their lead over Arsenal at the top of the table. Their recent form at St James' Park should fill them with confidence - they have not lost in Toon since September 2001.

That fixture, a 4-3 win for Newcastle in which the hosts had been pegged back after taking a 3-1 lead before scoring a late winner. and which featured the infamous clash between Roy Keane and Alan Shearer.

The following season at Gallowgate, the Magpies again took the lead, only to lose 6-2.

The last encounter at SJP was a 2-1 victory for the visitors (photo below, in the moments before kick off), although, again, Newcastle took the lead, this time through Peter Lovenkrands.

The reverse fixture this season was the opening game of the season, and NUFC was outclassed 3-0, without ever looking like threatening Edwin van der Sar's goal.

But Newcastle have not been shy in front of goal this campaign, particularly at home. The Toon have scored 36 times at home this season, second only to tonight's visitors.

Sir Alex's team has scored the third highest number of away goals this season, and their away form is by no means as imposing as is their record at home. They have picked up 46 out of a possible 48 points at home, while their away record is 23 points from a maximum of 48.

Newcastle's equivalent record is 21/48 at home and 18/48 away, showing that a). Man Utd are much better at home than they are away, and b). Newcastle's away record is not far behind the Red Devils'.

The Toon Army is fairly positive about their side's chances tonight. Paul Scholes is suspended for the visitors, and Fletcher is ill, although Newcastle miss a host of players too, including Kevin Nolan (also suspended). Stephen Ireland is set to play some part, and needs to prove that Alan Pardew should keep him on Tyneside.

Prediction: If past encounters are anything to go by, this should be a cracker. I'm going to be (relatively) bold and go for Newcastle United 2-2 Manchester United.

Football preview – Sunday 17th April

Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City

With the first semi final witnessing a hard-fought Manchester derby, today’s fixture at the national stadium was bound not to enthuse neutral supporters to the same degree. Not that fans of the two teams will care. Stoke, whose crowd at the Britannia Stadium is consistently acknowledged as one of the best in the Premier League, will hope to replicate that atmosphere inside Wembley. The Potters, who have never won the FA Cup, are not 100 per cent safe from relegation, but it would take an exceptional set of results for them to miss out on top-flight football next year.

Bolton, meanwhile, are sitting pretty in eighth position in the table, and Owen Coyle’s first full season in charge could represent one of the most successful in recent years. They will be without cup-tied goal-scoring sensation Daniel Sturridge, who has scored six goals in his eight games for Wanderers. However, they have managed well without him in previous rounds, securing away wins against three Premier League opponents, Wigan (albeit a replay), Fulham and Birmingham.

Prediction: Bolton 2-1 Stoke


Arsenal v Liverpool

Liverpool fans will have noticed that Fernando Torres yesterday extended his run at Chelsea without scoring, something that was put into context by Reds’ striker Andy Carroll opening his account for the club with a brace against Manchester City on Monday. Liverpool were dominant in that fixture, taking a 3-0 lead into half-time and being able to take their collective foot off the gas. As unlikely as it seemed just three months ago, Liverpool have an outside chance securing an automatic Europa League spot – although city rivals Everton are breathing down their necks.

Liverpool’s hosts today, Arsenal, can afford nothing less than a win today to keep their stalling championship hopes alive. Three points at Blackpool last weekend was preceded by a dreadful five-week period, in which they were knocked out of all three cup competitions and managed just three draws in their three Premier League outings. Arsenal’s traditional problem – that they do not score enough goals, in spite of their typical midfield creativity – was exacerbated by the equally familiar goalkeeping problems. Being forced to bring Jens Lehmann back to the club does not bode well for a team chasing the title. Even so, I expect them to raise their game today, and sneak a win in what should be a cracking game of football.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool

Premier League preview

Saturday 16th April, all kick-offs 3pm

Blackpool v Wigan, Bloomfield Road

By all accounts, Blackpool have been entertaining this season, and games involving the Tangerines have featured the highest average number of goals in the Premier League. Ian Holloway was unhappy with the referee’s performance in their last outing against Arsenal in a game that once again demonstrated that Blackpool have what it takes to survive. Wigan look in more dire straits, although a win here would put them above their hosts. I cannot see that happening, though, and despite something of an uptick in fortunes recently, the Latics have not won away in the league since Boxing Day. Prediction: Blackpool by 1

Everton v Blackburn, Goodison Park

A difficult start to the season for Everton has been put firmly behind them, and they have an outside chance of finishing ahead of their Merseyside rivals Liverpool. They put in a clinical first-half performance last time out at Wolves, and they should beat a Blackburn side that is still not safe. Rovers look as gritty as ever, and will push Everton hard, but the hosts will have too much class. Prediction: Everton by 2

West Brom v Chelsea, The Hawthorns

Roy Hodgson appears to have settled down at the Albion after his torrid spell at Liverpool. The Baggies are certainly better off for having him; they have not lost under his management, securing impressive points against Arsenal and at Stoke, and beating Hodgson’s previous club and, last weekend, Sunderland away. They are all but safe. Chelsea had any realistic chance of a trophy this season shattered by their Champions League defeat to Manchester United this week, and morale is bound to be low at Stamford Bridge, particularly with rumours emerging about Carlo Ancelotti’s future at the club. An interesting aside to whenever Chelsea play is whether Fernando Torres will finally break his duck and score for the Blues – see: http://www.hasfernandotorresscoredforchelsea.com/. Prediction: Score draw

West Ham v Aston Villa, Upton Park

The battle of the claret-and-blues might well be the (Premier League) game of the day. West Ham have had fluctuating fortunes over the course of the season. For the first half, they struggled at the foot of the league, with perhaps only their two good cup runs saving Avram Grant’s job. They have not won since a 3-0 triumph over Stoke on 5th March. Villa scored a priceless win on Sunday against Newcastle, although were not overly impressive, and fans are far from 100 per cent behind manager Gerard Houllier. They have talent in every department, but Upton Park is not an easy place to pick up maximum points. Prediction: Score draw

Birmingham v Sunderland, St Andrews

Birmingham are yet another club looking nervously over their shoulders in the closest relegation battle in years. St Andrews is another relative fortress at the wrong end of the table, and Sunderland are almost the ideal team to come up against for the Blues, with the Black Cats themselves in a dreadful run of form. Since the beginning of February, Steve Bruce’s men have scored seven goals and picked up just one point – at the Emirates – out of a possible 24. They probably have enough points to avoid being sucked into a relegation fight, but this fixture should give the hosts a vital three points. Prediction: Birmingham by 1