Four losses, but the underdogs show their worth

Five World Cup matches so far – and five wins for the overwhelming favourites. But all four of the underdogs in today’s matches provided terrific excitement for neutrals and proved that the results of most pool stage matches can not be taken granted.

First up was Romania, who pushed Scotland hard and, before a Paterson penalty and a brace of tries in the last minutes from winger Simon Danielli, threatened to cause a massive upset.

As it is, the Oaks will feel hugely disappointed that they failed to secure a losing bonus point. Coach Andy Robinson has a lot of work to do, but he will be relieved that, thanks to Danielli’s second touch down, they wrapped up a bonus point that, simultaneously, they denied Romania.

Also in Pool B, England edged out top seeds Argentina 13-9 in a dire encounter that saw an incredible eleven missed penalty kicks. Before kick-off, the South Americans were regarded as such a shadow of the side that ensured they were ranked fourth in the world rankings that England were installed as 1/8 favourites.

But the Pumas led for most of the match in the swanky new Otago Stadium before a late score from replacement scrum half Ben Youngs gave England the advantage for the first time in an encounter that was dominated by both sides’ ill-discipline.

Martin Hernandez, Felipe Contepomi and – most surprisingly – Jonny Wilkinson had an appalling time kicking at goal. Argentina’s persistence in attempting to utilise Hernandez’s boot from penalties just inside the English half should be questioned. Indeed, the fourth time this happened (and the fourth time Hernandez sent the ball wide) was enough for those watching to seriously question the merits of electing to kick at goal despite, clearly not having a sufficiently able kicker.

Wilkinson was uncharacteristically off-target, allowing Argentina to retain a 9-3 lead, despite their own problems from the tee, before Youngs crossed to calm the visibly enraged Martin Johnson.

France made hard work of defeating a dynamic Japanese side, who pegged les Bleus back to a 25-21 lead with ten minutes remaining, before three late tries took away from the Brave Blossoms much of the credit that their performance in the first seventy minutes merited.

James Arlidge, Japan’s New Zealand-born outside-half, scored all of his side’s points, including two tries, and the Japanese, under coach John Kirwan, were very disciplined, rucked impressively and have a real livewire in left winger Hirotoki Onozawa. France looked on the rocks for periods in the second half, but had enough class in the end to wrap up the bonus-point win.

Today’s other match saw Fiji run in six tries – four from Vereniki Godeva – in a 49-25 success over Namibia, whose outside-half Theuns Kotze dropped three goals. The Africans scored two tries, including a magnificent one for second row Heinze Koll Fiji were impressive, but Namibia, the lowest ranked side in the tournament, will take pride in their plucky showing.

World rugby, too, will be heartened by today in which all four underdogs impressed, albeit in losing causes.

Rugby World Cup: Pool D preview

Reigning World Champions they might be, but South Africa don’t enter this tournament in brilliant form. The Springboks finished bottom of the Tri Nations, and whilst they did not always field their strongest team, results such as the 14-9 home defeat to Australia caused much disquiet amongst supporters.

The team is littered with star quality, from prop Tendai ‘the Beast’ Mtawarira to combative fullback Frans Steyn. In JP Pietersen and Bryan Habana, they have probably the fastest wingers in the world, even if they are not quite on the same level as they were two or three years ago. It is hard to see any real weaknesses in the South African team, although perhaps a certain staleness will count against them. They struggled against Tonga in the group stage in 2007, but will easily qualify from this group which features the other two Pacific island nations.

Wales, however, will be quietly confident that they can upset the odds and triumph over the Springboks in both sides’ opening encounter in Wellington. Winning two of their three warm-up games will have done the Welsh a world of good. The Shaun Edwards-led defence was particularly impressive in the second of the two games against England, a 19-9 win in Cardiff in which, incredibly, Wales made 150 tackles and denied England a try despite their opponents making ten visits to Wales’ 22.

Wales pose a particular threat out wide, but they will know better than anyone that attacking flair is not necessarily a recipe for success, as was proved by their thrilling 38-34 defeat to Fiji in the group stage in 2007. The Welsh also have a poor record against Samoa in World Cups, losing in both 1991 and 1999 – and both of those matches took place in Cardiff.

Samoa, however, are weaker than they have been in the past, and are unlikely to pose the same kind of threat that they did to Wales in the 1990s as well as England in the 2003 tournament, when they ran the eventual champions uncomfortably close. They will be particularly reliant on Alesana Tuilagi, but will probably end up losing out to Fiji in the battle to finish third and qualify automatically for the 2015 World Cup.

Fiji will relish taking on Wales again; as well as the 2007 victory, the south-sea island nation upset the odds in the two sides’ last meeting at the Millennium Stadium ten months ago when they snatched a 16-16 draw. That was, admittedly, a much poorer Welsh team than the one they will face Down Under, but it was a demonstration that Pool D is certainly the so-called ‘Group of Death’, and Fiji will fancy their chances of grabbing second place – although you would expect Wales to have learnt their lesson. Fiji will bring the traditional fireworks that stand their sevens team in such good stead, but will find the quarterfinals a step too far this time around.

Namibia are the real whipping boys of Pool D. Their campaign in 2003 was marked by suffering the biggest defeat (in terms of margin of victory) in tournament history against hosts Australia in Perth – by 142 points to nil. They suffered four convincing losses last time around, too, but did put up slightly more of a fight against Ireland. Coach Johan Diergaardt has vowed that this is a much better Namibian side, and in Saracens flanker Jacques Burger they have a player of undoubted star quality. Even so, four heavy defeats surely beckon.

Predictions:

Fiji 49-17 Namibia
South Africa 27-19 Wales
Samoa 55-6 Namibia
South Africa 38-13 Fiji
Wales 29-16 Samoa
South Africa 76-3 Namibia
Wales 36-14 Namibia
South Africa 41-11 Samoa
Wales 32-20 Fiji