Wales hoping for controversy-free win

The last time Wales met France, a red card for Wales’s inspirational captain Sam Warburton defined the team’s brave but ultimately unfruitful World Cup run.

Tomorrow’s referee, Craig Joubert, also courted controversy when his officiating of the final attracted criticism from the defeated French side as well as many neutrals.

And there will be a degree of apprehension before tomorrow’s game because of the significant role played by the officials so far in this year’s event.

Wales’s opening weekend win in Dublin – pipping the Irish 23-21 thanks to a last-gasp Leigh Halfpenny penalty – was overshadowed by two so-called “tip-tackling” incidents.

Halfpenny’s winning kick came after referee Wayne Barnes judged, perhaps harshly, Ireland’s Stephen Ferris to have lifted Ian Evans dangerously.

But Ferris’s sin-binning meant he received the exact same punishment as Welshman Bradley Davies, who committed a far more dangerous offence earlier in the half.

Davies was spared a red card – though not the wrath of the subsequent citing committee – on the wrongful advice of Barnes’s touch judge and fellow Englishman Dave Pearson.

Compatriot and former World Cup whistleman Fred Howard told The Cardiffian after the match he thought Davies deserved red: “Pearson was very wrong in recommending a yellow card for the first [Davies’s] offence,” he said.

Wales’s home win over Scotland was less shrouded in controversy, although Frenchman Romain Poite looked to have made an error in disallowing a Scottish score for an apparent knock-on.

But when Wales secured the Triple Crown thanks to a 19-12 triumph over England at Twickenham, it sparked a huge debate over whether David Strettle had touched down for what could have been an equalising try with the last play of the game.

Strettle later insisted he had grounded the ball despite the attentions of Wales’s George North, Jonathan Davies and Halfpenny. But television match official Iain Ramage decided the play was inconclusive, allowing Wales escaped with the win – and the Triple Crown trophy.

Wales will point to Alain Rolland’s dismissal of Warburton as proof Wales have not always benefited from controversial decisions.

But both sides will be hoping Mr Joubert plays a low-key role in the sides’ Six Nations finale and the game is not won or lost thanks to the interpretation of the man in the middle.

Ex-official: Former referee: Davies and Ferris both deserved red

This is an article I wrote for The Cardiffian and my other blog, An Early Bath.

Former international referee Fred Howard has joined those who argue Wales’s Bradley Davies should have been sent off for dangerous play against Ireland on Sunday.

Second row Davies was yellow-carded late on by referee Wayne Barnes after a tip-tackle on opposite number Donnacha Ryan.

He will find out tomorrow how long a suspension he will receive for the dangerous tackle during the 23-21 victory when he attends a disciplinary hearing in London.

Also in attendance will be Ireland’s Stephen Ferris, who was sin-binned late on for a lifting tackle on Ian Evans. The subsequent penalty, which was converted by Leigh Halfpenny, was enough to secure the win for Wales.

Howard, who earned the nickname “Fearless Fred” for the frequency with which he was willing to discipline players on the field, said both Davies and Ferris deserved red in the eyes of the law.

Coach Warren Gatland admitted after the game Davies was fortunate not to have seen red.

But Howard said Ferris deserved a similar punishment. “Because of the directives referees are under both technically should have been red cards,” said the man who took charge of eight Wales games in his international career, which spanned eight years between 1984 and 1992.

Among those encounters was Wales’s 1987 World Cup third-place play-off victory over Australia.

Howard believes fellow Englishman Dave Pearson, who told referee Wayne Barnes to send Davies to the sin bin, was at fault. “I think Dave Pearson was very wrong in recommending a yellow card for the first [Davies’s] offence,” he said.

Howard, who officiated a total of 20 test matches, believes referees need to be given more leeway when making decisions surrounding tip tackles and lifting an opponent off his feet.

“The second one [Ferris’s] would have been a very harsh red card,” he said.

Welsh captain Sam Warburton was sent off during last year’s World Cup for a similar tackle on France’s Vincent Clerc and was handed a three-week suspension as a result.

The debate which greeted Warburton’s dismissal has been reignited by the Dublin encounter, and Howard says a referee must be able to judge each individual circumstance on its merits.

“The referee has got to be given some discretion, as they have with punches,” he said.

“I think if referees have reached that level they should be competent in differentiating between serious foul play and the second one [Ferris’s tackle] which was more of an afterthought.”

He added: “I think most referees would want to be given that discretion. I never liked being backed into a corner.”

Magnificent Wales make it a 4.30am start to remember

Wales 22-10 Ireland

The score might make it seem relatively comfortable, but from the perspective of this Welsh fan – particularly one watching it in O’Neill’s Irish pub with a pre-9am pint in one hand and tea in the other – though for large parts this was anything but.

Wales became the fourth team in World Cup history to reach the semi-finals despite not winning their pool – France would become the fifth two hours later – in a display that makes hyperbole almost impossible.

A third-minute try gave Wales the start they craved, but for most of the rest of the first half it was Wales who were on the back foot. Ireland were almost camped in the Welsh half, but the Shaun Edwards-inspired defence consistently repelled the green-shirted endeavours.

Much has been made of the fitness of the Welsh squad following a gruelling training camp coach Warren Gatland inflicted on them over the summer. And that physical strength was there for all to see in Wellington today. Even little Shane Williams, occasionally averse to tackling, brilliantly prevented a touchdown for Sean O’Brien.

Wales defended their line with an intensity and an urgency that restricted Ireland to just three first-half points, despite the latter’s near-constant pressure. Wales were helped by bizarre tactical choices after Ireland opted to kick for touch from three kickable penalties, apparently negating the selection of Ronan O’Gara over the more creative Jonathan Sexton.

Wales took a 10-3 lead into the break, Leigh Halfpenny restoring his side’s seven-point advantage by slotting a long-range penalty. Apart from the first few minutes, Ireland had dominated the first 40-minute. They were made to pay for their failure to convert their pressure into points, even if that was as much due to Welsh pluck as Irish wastefulness.

The second half was almost an exact reversal of the first period. Ireland finally crossed the whitewash in the early stages. Keith Earls slid over in the corner, and O’Gara brought the scores level with a fine touchline conversion.

At that stage I was particularly worried. The momentum appeared to be with Ireland – and those wearing green at O’Neill’s were jubilant. For the first time, Fields of Athenry spilled out into the still-gloomy Trinity Street. Wales fans were tense; an English supporter looked ecstatic (that feeling was well and truly wiped out within an hour or two).

But with a resilience that Wales seem to have adopted for the purposes of this tournament, Sam Warburton’s men refused to lie down. Within five minutes they had their reward. Mike Phillips spotted the smallest of blindside opportunities, and used power and incredible agility to first brush off the defenders before leaping into the corner in order to avoid the touchline, echoing Brian O’Driscoll’s score against Australia in the 2003 World Cup.

By this stage, Wales fans were back on top in the battle of Trinity Street as their team’s superior fitness began to tell. With just over fifteen minutes remaining, centre Jonathan Davies burst through an attempted tackle by prop Cian Healy, and had the strength to power his way over for a try which Rhys Priestland converted.

Priestland was generally assured, but his kicking from hand was a bit shaky at times. His opposite number O’Gara, however, had something of a mixed day by his usually high standards. Twice in the first half the Munsterman kicked the ball dead, costing his side both field position and possession.

Questions must surround the tactics Ireland adopted regarding the priorities from penalties, and with O’Gara not on top form when kicking from hand either, the decision to start him was certainly dubious. He was replaced after 55 minutes, to the general relief of the green majority in O’Neill’s.

Even a 12-point lead barely freed me of my nerves and I didn’t feel comfortable until the 79th minute. But that probably says more about paranoia on my part than the existence of a true Irish threat.

They did come close to the Welsh line, but by the end there seemed to be a total dearth of ideas or creativity. The Irish team had no idea how to breach the stubborn Welsh defence, and their team, much older than Gatland’s young upstarts, were far more tired.

Welsh squad discipline and fitness has been in evidence throughout the tournament, but no more than today. Ireland made 93 tackles and missed fourteen for a success rate of 87 percent. But in an indication both of Ireland’s constant first-half pressure and the Welsh strength and determination, Wales made 141 tackles and missed only eleven for a success rate of 93 percent; Luke Charteris made an incredible sixteen before he was forced to go off at half-time with – perhaps unsurprisingly – a shoulder injury.

Yet despite that, Wales made only one other replacement – Hook for Priestland with three minutes remaining – compared with Ireland’s five, an indication of the deep energy levels Gatland’s starting XV demonstrably have.

This was a momentous occasion for Wales, and I am relishing seeing my country in the World Cup semi-finals for the first time in my life. The Irish contingent looked glum; their team still has never reached the last four. Today will be incredible; tomorrow the nerves will kick in before the encounter with Les Bleus next Saturday.

The only task for me this week is to find a French bar in Cardiff.

Clichéd it may be, but this one really is too close to call

Ireland v Wales, Saturday 8th October 6am BST

In many ways, it is a pity that the two sides who have demonstrated the rugby that they have are forced to meet in the quarterfinals.

So it is that for an increasing number of commentators, Wales’ clash with Ireland in Wellington in the early hours of Saturday morning (European time) could easily also decide one of the finalists of the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

The reasoning behind that is fairly straightforward – the winner will face whoever emerges triumphant from the England-France match. With both those teams in different degrees of disarray, if not chaos, we might well witness the first Celtic nation ever to reach the last two of the cup.

Not that the Irish or Welsh teams are yet looking that far ahead. They will be fully aware that the form that they have both shown so far at this tournament will serve only to ratchet up the pressure.

For Ireland, many stalwarts of the last decade – most notably Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll and Ronan O’Gara – must take this chance if they are ever to have success at a World Cup. The Irish have traditionally fared badly at World Cups, and have never reached the semi-finals. This is as good a chance as they have ever had.

Warren Gatland’s Wales, meanwhile, are under the pressure of an expectant nation. The Western Mail this morning is an indicator of the emotional energy expended on the national team by those in the Principality: “

One of these two fine teams will be feeling bitter and disappointed in twelve short hours time. The other will almost certainly be deliriously happy, albeit with a recognition that focus is key in the next stage of their quest to reach the Eden Park final on 23rd October.

Such is knockout sport. The stage is set for the clash of two sides that are the cream of the northern hemisphere crop. Ireland’s physicality and experience versus Wales’ fitness and creativity.

It is a bold pundit who predicts the result with any real confidence. Indeed, many have condensed their analysis simply to further increasing the hype, talking of the titanic battle in the back rows, the need for Ireland to smother the Welsh attempts at ball carrying, the importance of Ronan O’Gara’s tactical game.

Fans on both sides of the Irish Sea will be rising before the sun in order to watch their side, with apprehension available in greater quantity than confidence. But anticipation prevails throughout the rugby world, as two sides who know each other well, who have had very little separate them in recent years and who are both in fine form lock horns.

Ireland will want revenge for the match they lost in Cardiff earlier this year when a Mike Phillips try was awarded despite stemming from a wrongly-taken quick lineout. Wales will be unfazed by that, and – as usual – will relish their underdog tags, however marginal that is.

Ladbrokes make the Irish two point favourites. It really will be that close. And I am going to shun the opportunity to predict it – although my head and my heart are not necessarily on the same wavelength.


Other quarterfinal predictions:

England 27-13 France
Australia 24-19 South Africa
New Zealand 34-8 Argentina

England, even in winning, and France provide little to strike fear into later opponents

In all likelihood, England will face France in the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals, with the winner expecting to play either Ireland or Wales.

The Celts will be confident, whoever they face.

England waltzed to a 67-3 win over lowly Romania in Dunedin in today’s early match, scoring ten tries in a match that, on the face of things, should banish most of the bad feeling that has been lingering around the England team. Wingers Chris Ashton and Mark Cueto scored a hat-trick each, and the Oaks barely resisted a much-improved performance from England’s backs, with Manu Tuilagi and Ben Foden also cutting through the blue-shirted defence with ease.

But, despite the marked improvement from Martin Johnson’s men in comparison with the performances against Argentina and Georgia, this victory should not eliminate all the concerns within the English camp. This was not the same Romania side that ran Scotland so close – many of their more solid and experienced players started this game on the bench, resting before their encounter with Georgia, the one match they feel they have a chance of winning.

England also continued to commit silly penalties when it was not required, although, admittedly, the problem was nothing like the scourge that blighted their performances in the earlier pool matches. Judgement on England by their potential knockout opponents should be reserved until they give a dominating performance against a team of far more rugby calibre than Romania. Scotland should provide that challenge when the sides meet next Saturday; until then, there is little reason why Ireland, France and Wales should see England as having made any great progress in the past six days.

England were certainly impressive – but most teams would be in the face of a Romanian side that could not win its own lineout, could not catch and seemed frightened of taking the game to their opponents.

France, on the other hand, were a shambles. Apart from the first eight minutes, the controversial selection policy of Marc Lievremont had clearly not paid dividends – far from it. New Zealand were constantly on the attack and the backline – especially Ma’a Nonu, Dan Carter, Israel Dagg and substitute Sonny Bill Williams – seemed to break through their French opponents’ tackling almost at will.

Some passages of play resembled those seen in matches between teams with a far greater gulf in class than the Eden Park crowd expected to see. This was most obviously the case with the try within a matter of moments after the second half kick-off, when the All Blacks broke up the middle with almost embarrassing ease. Again, at the death, responding to a few minutes of French toil that finally brought Les Bleus seven points, the hosts raced downfield before spreading the ball to allow Williams himself to slide over for his side’s fifth score.

But it was more a case of the French being desperately disappointing than the All Blacks being imposing. France committed a catalogue of basic errors, were short of discipline and, for the most part, clueless. Their two tries were hardly demonstrations of any prowess – one was a fifty-metre interception score for Maxime Mermoz; the other, from Francois Trinh-Duc (Lievremont swallowed his pride to order him to replace Morgan Parra at fly-half), came from a tap penalty taken by Dmitri Yachvili while it appeared that the All Black forwards were still getting a talking-to from referee Alain Rolland.

Whatever Lievremont was trying to achieve with his almost-random selection policy was not achieved; even if, as conspiracy theorists have suggested, he wanted to lose, that will backfire considering the scale of this defeat. Lievremont is leaving his post as French coach at the end of the tournament, though, so his thinking could have been to employ a scorched-earth policy… At least that would explain the abysmal performance.

Ireland and Wales have both impressed so far – Ireland providing the shock of the World Cup by beating Australia; Wales by coming so close – on more than one occasion – to turning over the world champion Springboks. The winner of a quarterfinal between those two would have next to no evidence from today’s fixtures to fear either England or, especially, France, even if Lievremont were to restore his players to their natural positions.

That said, it would be typical of Ireland, but particularly of Wales, to self-implode themselves – they must prove, against Italy and Fiji respectively (wins over Russia and Namibia are a given) that France or England should fear them.

Rugby World Cup: Pool C preview

If current form is an accurate guide, Australia should have no trouble in qualifying from this group, most likely as winners. The Wallabies were impressive in the Tri Nations finale, upsetting the odds to defeat New Zealand 25-20 in Brisbane. They are widely seen as most likely to stop the All Blacks triumphing at the World Cup, and I have come to see them as outright favourites.

In Quade Cooper, James O’Connor (whose place in the starting XV is in doubt after a disciplinary issue), Digby Ioane and Kurtley Beale they may stake a claim to having the strongest back line in world rugby, although the highly skilled Cooper is nevertheless weak defensively and has a tendency to get rattled. It is not inconceivable that his attempts to be too clever could backfire and cost his team dear. Scrum half Will Genia, too, is arguably the best in the world in his position at present.

The Australian forwards are themselves hardly an Achilles heel. Captain James Horwill and Radike Samo are imposing presences; that said, the Wallabies will seek to exploit their advantage out wide. Their principal challenge in the group stage will be Ireland, whose team, by contrast, is aging.

This will almost certainly be the final chance for players such as Paul O’Connell, Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy to make an impact on the international stage, although there are plenty of young – yet experienced – backs in the Irish stage, including Jonathan Sexton and Tommy Bowe. Ireland were disappointing in their warm-up matches, losing all four. They performed badly at the last World Cup, too, and will be desperate to make amends, but although it would be a surprise if they failed to qualify from the pool, it is difficult to see them getting further than the quarterfinals.

Italy have a poor record in World Cups, never having qualified for the knockout phases. Flashes of quality in the Six Nations have been all too rare, although a first win over France in the tournament earlier in 2011 gave cause for much celebration amongst supporters of the Azzurri. Number Eight Sergio Parisse is one of the world’s elite players, but along with other stars such as fellow forwards Andrea Lo Cicero and Martin Castrogiovanni, he cannot, of course, carry the rest of the team. Even so, the perennial third seeds will see Ireland as a target, and will pull out all the stops finally to reach the quarterfinals – and on their day, they are certainly capable of doing so.

The United States and Russia met in the Bowl Final of this summer’s Churchill Cup, where they played out a thrilling (if relatively defensively inept) encounter in which the American Eagles triumphed 32-25. There was plenty of attacking rugby – and US winger Takudzwa Ngwenya is still remembered fondly in the rugby world for burning South Africa’s Bryan Habana in the 2007 World Cup to score a famous try. That score had been set up by another key man for the Eagles, wild-haired flanker and captain Todd Clever.

Russia will be keen to make amends for that defeat in this, their first World Cup tournament. Coached by former Welsh captain Kingsley Jones, the Bears will be forced to perform the traditional minnows’ role of retaining respectability against the bigger sides. Being a physical side should help them in this regard, and neither Ireland nor Italy are likely to be able to run riot against them. This tournament, though, will be little more than a learning process for them.

Predictions:

Australia 56-18 Italy
Ireland 32-13 USA
Russia 20-33 USA
Australia 27-16 Ireland
Italy 45-10 Russia
Australia 61-9 USA
Ireland 34-6 Russia
Italy 32-19 USA
Australia 59-3 Russia
Ireland 24-28 Italy