Wednesday 4 May 2011

The repercussions of a No to AV will inflict yet more pain on the Lib Dems

It has had more than its fair share of back-biting, aggro and, ahem, mistruths. But tomorrow, we will finally arrive at polling day, and Britain will go to the polls to decide whether to change the way we elect our MPs.

In recent days and weeks, opinion polls have shown an increasingly large lead for the NO campaign - one eve-of-election poll put YES on 32% and NO on 68%.

With an apparently unassailable lead for NO, there is little to be done in the way of predicting what will happen when the votes are counted on Friday afternoon.

On the other hand, the repercussions could be significant. Nick Clegg will have seen to have failed to get out of the coalition the one thing that his party so desperately craves - electoral reform.

Indeed, his position as Lib Dem leader - if not necessarily as Deputy Prime Minister - could be under threat. Certainly, potential challengers such as Chris Huhne, Tim Farron and Vince Cable have recently sought to assert themselves and emphasise their differences with the Conservatives, the senior partner in the coalition government.

David Cameron will be reasonably satisfied with a NO vote. Ed Miliband has supported YES, but will let the Lib Dems take the flak for the result.

The referendum was desperately pushed by the Liberal Democrats - but what looks to be its landslide rejection will demoralise the party and could cause ructions in the coalition. One thing remains to be determined - the level of fallout as a result of a NO victory.

P.S. What a waste of time and space this piece will have been if it is a YES victory!