Newcastle United v Manchester United, St James' Park

Everytime Sir Alex comes to Tyneside, he will remember the day when his side were humiliated 5-0, with Phillipe Albert's glorious chipped fifth goal still one of my favourites of all time, leaving aside any club allegiance.

That scoreline is less likely this evening, with the red United looking to extend their lead over Arsenal at the top of the table. Their recent form at St James' Park should fill them with confidence - they have not lost in Toon since September 2001.

That fixture, a 4-3 win for Newcastle in which the hosts had been pegged back after taking a 3-1 lead before scoring a late winner. and which featured the infamous clash between Roy Keane and Alan Shearer.

The following season at Gallowgate, the Magpies again took the lead, only to lose 6-2.

The last encounter at SJP was a 2-1 victory for the visitors (photo below, in the moments before kick off), although, again, Newcastle took the lead, this time through Peter Lovenkrands.

The reverse fixture this season was the opening game of the season, and NUFC was outclassed 3-0, without ever looking like threatening Edwin van der Sar's goal.

But Newcastle have not been shy in front of goal this campaign, particularly at home. The Toon have scored 36 times at home this season, second only to tonight's visitors.

Sir Alex's team has scored the third highest number of away goals this season, and their away form is by no means as imposing as is their record at home. They have picked up 46 out of a possible 48 points at home, while their away record is 23 points from a maximum of 48.

Newcastle's equivalent record is 21/48 at home and 18/48 away, showing that a). Man Utd are much better at home than they are away, and b). Newcastle's away record is not far behind the Red Devils'.

The Toon Army is fairly positive about their side's chances tonight. Paul Scholes is suspended for the visitors, and Fletcher is ill, although Newcastle miss a host of players too, including Kevin Nolan (also suspended). Stephen Ireland is set to play some part, and needs to prove that Alan Pardew should keep him on Tyneside.

Prediction: If past encounters are anything to go by, this should be a cracker. I'm going to be (relatively) bold and go for Newcastle United 2-2 Manchester United.

Spotify - what next for users?

It seemed too good to be true - and it is, apparently.

Spotify will implement major restrictions on its usage from 1st May - a week on Sunday - to existing as well as new customers on the free version:

As of May 1st, any user who signed up to the free service on or before November 1st 2010 will be able to play each track for free up to a total of 5 times. Users who signed up after the beginning of November will see these changes applied 6 months after the time they set up their Spotify account.

Additionally, total listening time for free users will be limited to 10 hours per month after the first 6 months. That’s equivalent to around 200 tracks or 20 albums.

I always wondered how Spotify could justify providing its huge music selection for free with - let's face it - minimal advertising interruptions (that said, though, the ads were quite grating).

So it is no surprise that changes have to be made. But let's see how the new limits break down. Ten hours a month is equivalent to just twenty minutes a day. Currently, I use Spotify all day, every day that I am working at my laptop. Twenty minutes is nothing, especially with the approaching exam season and the resultant, and seemingly endless, revision.

I also tend to become obsessed with a song, and play it constantly on Spotify. (currently it's The Buggles' 'Video Killed the Radio Star'!) Restricting an individual song to just five plays seems harsh - but, as Spotify point out, it certainly gives users enough time to work out whether they like the track enough to buy it.

So, for me, four options exist:

1. Use minimal, but still free Spotify, supplemented by my smaller iTunes collection and perhaps even a Youtube playlist.

2. Pay for Spotify Premium/Unlimited.

3. Dramatically extend my iTunes library.

4. A combination of the above.

I should declare here that piracy is not an option. I am expecting piracy to rise, at least initially, but I cannot condone that.

Hmm. Just under a fortnight to decide!

AV set to be rejected?

Interesting to see an ICM poll suggesting that NoToAV would receive 58 per cent in next month's referendum, with a huge gap opening up between the camps.

ICM is regarded by many, particularly Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting.com, as the 'gold standard' pollster, so to have such a big NO lead will surely deflate the YES campaign.

Importantly, the poll also covered Northern Ireland - I believe it is the first time any AV polls have included the province, as its differing party system means it is not included in standard Westminster voting intention questions.

I am slightly wary about this poll, though, for two reasons:

1. It is the first to give such a substantial to either side, and I wonder what has caused such a big jump (even if it was nearly a month since the last ICM poll, the only one to which this latest survey can be accurately compared).

2. I still maintain that YES voters will be more likely to turn out. As with March's National Assembly for Wales powers referendum, many people who would vote NO if they went to the polling station, simply do not care enough to actually go and mark their ballot.

The effect of differential turnout in Scotland and Wales, and those parts of England with local elections, is difficult to gauge - but it may be crucial.

I'll update the blog with any interesting sub-sample results when I have seen them.

Football round-up, Sunday 17th April

Wow - two incredible stories in the big matches in England. My heart was thumping at what felt like 200 beats per minute at the end of the match at the Emirates, and I don't even support either of the teams. But first, a sensational result in today's second FA Cup semi:

Bolton 0-5 Stoke

Stoke ripped up the formbook with this win, a result I daresay you could have got 100/1 against before the start of play. Etherington and Huth put the Potters two up within the first twenty minutes leaving favourites Bolton rocked. One more goal before the break from Kenwyne Jones gave Tony Pulis' men a comfortable halftime lead, before a Jon Walters brace emphatically secured Stoke's place in the final.

They will meet yesterday's victors Manchester City, ensuring that the winner will be the first piece of silverware for either team in three decades: Manchester City's last trophy was the 1976 League Cup, while Stoke's was the same title four years before that.

Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool

After 95 minutes, this match was typical of Arsenal's recent form: much possession, but precious little to show for it. Just as the Gunners were preparing to wave goodbye to any chance of a trophy this season, however, Liverpool's otherwise-excellent Jay Spearing blotted his copybook by tripping Cesc Fabregas in the penalty box. Robin van Persie sparked delirious scenes at the Emirates by coolly converting the resulting spotkick, and Arsenal looked, after an hour and a half of fruitless toil, to have secured three priceless points.

Following a lengthy period of treatment for Jamie Carragher earlier in the second half, however, still three minutes of additional time remained, and, extraordinarily, Liverpool struck back. A mindless shove in the area by Emmanuel Eboue gave Dirk Kuyt the chance to level the match, again from the spot, in the 112th minute. He converted with aplomb, blasting his penalty past the flying Wojciech Szczesny (incidentally, my favourite name in professional football, with the possible exception of Dudley 'DJ' Campbell).

The end of the match was marked by a spat by a disgusted Arsene Wenger and a jubilant Kenny Dalglish; Wenger could not argue the award of the penalty (although may have a case that the game should not have continued as long after the end of the eight minutes of added time signalled).

The managers' exchange of words merely added a final twist to a quite remarkable seven minutes in North London.

AV campaign intensifies in increasingly bad-tempered and divisive contest

Twelve months after the general election, British election machines are once again moving up through the gears. 5th May sees a plethora of different contests across the country:

AV referendum
Scottish Parliament
Welsh Assembly
Some English councils/unitary authorities/mayoral contests
Leicester South parliamentary by-election

It is curious to note, and one cannot help but do so, that the only national vote - whether or not the UK should change its method of electing MPs from the First Past the Post system (FPTP) to the Alternative Vote (AV) - is becoming increasingly ill-tempered. Former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown has, in today's Observer, issued a strong rebuke to what he termed the "scaremongering" of the NO campaign.

Lord Ashdown also described the tactics of Conservative Party chairman Baroness Warsi as "tawdry" and "indefensible". Warsi's cabinet colleague, environment secretary Chris Huhne, has already been compared to Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels.

I will not here go into the merits of a YES or NO vote. What is becoming apparent, however, is the relatively small role of Labour leader Ed Miliband in the campaign. Admittedly, he did cause a minor stir after apparently refusing to share a stage with Nick Clegg, but ever since he has taken a back seat role.

This may turn out to be a wise move from Miliband. His detractors might argue that he is not a strong enough leader to take a more active role in the campaign, and with his net approval rating at -19 per cent according to today's YouGov poll, he is far from an automatic vote-winner.

In addition, his party is split almost down the middle on the referendum, making it hard for Miliband to push the issue without the risk of causing splits within the party. Labour grandees Lord Prescott, David Blunkett and Margaret Beckett favour a NO vote, while most of the shadow cabinet have endorsed a YES vote.

Miliband, though, will be pleased to see members of the government attacking each other over the issue, and with Vince Cable's attack on the PM's immigration plans, cracks within the coalition are perhaps starting to emerge. The coalition government has insisted that it will not be fatally wounded whatever the referendum result in May.

But Nick Clegg will be aware that this was his flagship policy from the coalition. The Lib Dems will be demoralised should NO prevail, and Ashdown's remarks display a palpable sense of worry within Cowley Street. Ed Miliband may be backing YES, but, from a political perspective, he might not be too disheartened by a NO vote. He will be able to sit back and take advantage of the likely repercussions.

Football preview – Sunday 17th April

Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City

With the first semi final witnessing a hard-fought Manchester derby, today’s fixture at the national stadium was bound not to enthuse neutral supporters to the same degree. Not that fans of the two teams will care. Stoke, whose crowd at the Britannia Stadium is consistently acknowledged as one of the best in the Premier League, will hope to replicate that atmosphere inside Wembley. The Potters, who have never won the FA Cup, are not 100 per cent safe from relegation, but it would take an exceptional set of results for them to miss out on top-flight football next year.

Bolton, meanwhile, are sitting pretty in eighth position in the table, and Owen Coyle’s first full season in charge could represent one of the most successful in recent years. They will be without cup-tied goal-scoring sensation Daniel Sturridge, who has scored six goals in his eight games for Wanderers. However, they have managed well without him in previous rounds, securing away wins against three Premier League opponents, Wigan (albeit a replay), Fulham and Birmingham.

Prediction: Bolton 2-1 Stoke


Arsenal v Liverpool

Liverpool fans will have noticed that Fernando Torres yesterday extended his run at Chelsea without scoring, something that was put into context by Reds’ striker Andy Carroll opening his account for the club with a brace against Manchester City on Monday. Liverpool were dominant in that fixture, taking a 3-0 lead into half-time and being able to take their collective foot off the gas. As unlikely as it seemed just three months ago, Liverpool have an outside chance securing an automatic Europa League spot – although city rivals Everton are breathing down their necks.

Liverpool’s hosts today, Arsenal, can afford nothing less than a win today to keep their stalling championship hopes alive. Three points at Blackpool last weekend was preceded by a dreadful five-week period, in which they were knocked out of all three cup competitions and managed just three draws in their three Premier League outings. Arsenal’s traditional problem – that they do not score enough goals, in spite of their typical midfield creativity – was exacerbated by the equally familiar goalkeeping problems. Being forced to bring Jens Lehmann back to the club does not bode well for a team chasing the title. Even so, I expect them to raise their game today, and sneak a win in what should be a cracking game of football.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool

Football round-up, Saturday 16th April

FA Cup semi final:

Manchester City 1-0 Manchester United

This match, which saw City deservedly triumph over their neighbours thanks to a second-half goal from Yaya Toure, will be talked about for years to come in the blue half of Manchester. Their long wait for a trophy did not end this evening, of course, but it will probably feel like it. United, who had Paul Scholes rightly sent off, have been denied the chance of a famous treble, and will be smarting after this result. I predicted a United win, and I was surprised by the attitude shown by City, who bossed most of the game. Then again, even Mario Balotelli could get psyched up for a semi final against his team’s greatest rival.

Premier League:

Birmingham 2-0 Sunderland
Blackpool 1-3 Wigan
Everton 2-0 Blackburn
WBA 1-3 Chelsea
West Ham 1-2 Aston Villa

The closest relegation battle I can remember got even more intriguing this afternoon, with wins for Wigan and Birmingham ensuring that each leapfrogged today’s opponents, Blackpool and Sunderland respectively. Chelsea secured a morale-boosting win in breaking Roy Hodgson’s unbeaten run as West Brom manager. Blackpool will perhaps worry the most tonight. Most fans will have seen today’s fixture, at home to the bottom club, as the best opportunity to chalk up a vital three points. West Ham failed to maximise the Tangerines’ pain though, with the Hammers failed to cling on for a draw against Villa (a result I thought they would secure when I previewed the weekend’s football). Everton beat Blackburn in the day’s other fixture, and Rovers now occupy 16th place, just three points ahead of bottom-placed Wolves – who have a game in hand. If Sunderland’s dire form continues, even they might not be safe.

Championship (selected):

Burnley 2-1 Swansea
Cardiff 3-0 Portsmouth
Crystal Palace 1-2 Scunthorpe
Preston 3-1 Sheffield United
Reading 3-1 Leicester

The bottom of the Championship may not be quite as exciting as the Premier League, but in recent weeks Preston North End – and to a lesser extent Scunthorpe – have spiced up the final few games. Scunthorpe’s win at Crystal Palace, who narrowly avoided relegation last season) means that both teams are heavily embroiled in the scrap to avoid the drop, with Preston just a point behind Scunny. North End have taken fourteen points from their last seven games, a record that would put them TOP had it been replicated since the start of the season. Their win over Sheffield United has all but condemned the Blades to playing League One football next year.

At the other end of the table, Reading, who have not lost in the league since 12th February, beat Leicester to record their eighth consecutive victory, propelling them ahead of Swansea, who slumped to a loss at Turf Moor against Burnley, despite taking a second half lead. The Swans’ south Wales rivals Cardiff regained the second automatic promotion place from Norwich, who beat Nottingham Forest last night. The Bluebirds now need just one point to guarantee a play-off place, but they will not want to enter that lottery, particularly after last year’s heart-breaking loss at Wembley to Blackpool. QPR, who did not play today, need just five points to secure promotion, and six to ensure their promotion.